China's yuan inches higher, but policy divergence seen weighing

  • 9/9/2021
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SHANGHAI, Sept 9 (Reuters) - China"s yuan edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, lifted by a stronger official fixing, but traders expect gains will be limited as central banks elsewhere in the world start to scale back pandemic emergency stimulus programmes. While Chinese officials recently moved to cool expectations of broad easing to boost the slowing economy, investors still expect more modest support measures, highlighting a growing policy divergence with other countries. The People"s Bank of China set the yuan"s daily midpoint rate at 6.4615 per dollar prior to the market open, firmer than Wednesday"s fix of 6.4674. Spot yuan opened at 6.4630 per dollar and strengthened to 6.4606 around midday. The offshore yuan was barely changed at 6.4588. "The yuan will remain rangebound in the near term. Beyond that we"ll have to watch the mood of the ECB and the Fed. Tapering is getting closer and closer," said a trader at a foreign bank. The European Central Bank is particularly in focus, with analysts expecting it to announce a token step towards reducing its emergency economic support later on Thursday. Several Fed policymakers, meanwhile, signalled on Wednesday the U.S. central bank remains on track to reduce asset purchases this year, despite rising COVID-19 cases and weak August jobs data. In an indication of the challenges facing Chinese policymakers as they seek to support an uneven recovery, the country"s factory gate inflation hit a 13-year high in August, driven by surging raw material prices despite Beijing"s attempts to cool them, putting more pressure on manufacturers. Other data over the coming weak is expected to a further softening in industrial output growth and retail sales. Still, expectations for near-term easing in China have cooled after comments by the PBOC"s vice governor on Tuesday, who said it will maintain prudent monetary policy and that liquidity supply and demand will remain basically balanced in coming months. "In an environment of the market revising its pessimistic expectations around economic fundamentals and of restrictions on further loosening of monetary policy, we think it will be difficult for the Chinese 10-year yield to fall below its previous low around 2.8%," Ming Ming, fixed income analyst at CITIC Securities, said in a note. The yuan market at 3:40AM GMT: ONSHORE SPOT: Item Current Previous Change PBOC midpoint 6.4615 6.4674 0.09% Spot yuan 6.4606 6.461 0.01% Divergence from -0.01% midpoint* Spot change YTD 1.05% Spot change since 2005 28.11% revaluation Key indexes: Item Current Previous Change Thomson 98.81 98.77 0.1 Reuters/HKEX CNH index Dollar index 92.693 92.703 0.0 *Divergence of the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number indicates that spot yuan is trading stronger than the midpoint. The People"s Bank of China (PBOC) allows the exchange rate to rise or fall 2% from official midpoint rate it sets each morning. OFFSHORE CNH MARKET Instrument Current Difference from onshore Offshore spot yuan 6.4588 0.03% * Offshore 6.6358 -2.63% non-deliverable forwards ** *Premium for offshore spot over onshore **Figure reflects difference from PBOC"s official midpoint, since non-deliverable forwards are settled against the midpoint. . (Reporting by Xiao Han in Beijing and Andrew Galbraith in Shanghai; Editing by Kim Coghill) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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