EMERGING MARKETS-Argentine assets jump as opposition leads in primary vote

  • 9/13/2021
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Argentine stocks hit record high, peso rises 3.9% * Brazil"s real up 0.6%, fiscal & political woes linger * Chile central bank minutes on Wednesday eyed (Adds comments, updates prices throughout) By Susan Mathew and Shreyashi Sanyal Sept 13 (Reuters) - Argentine stocks hit an all-time high and bonds rallied on Monday after primary elections indicated the conservative opposition might win mid-terms in November, heralding possibly market-friendly policy changes as the economy struggles. The country"s benchmark 2035 dollar-denominated sovereign bond rose as much three points, traders said. Broad-based gains on benchmark Merval stocks index, which rose 4.4% were led by an 14% jump in power producer Central Puerto. The Argentine peso jumped 3.9% to 178 per dollar, traders said, while a risk index for the country dropped sharply. The opposition led by around five percentage points in the key province of Buenos Aires, with some 84% of votes tallied in the populous region, which has been a bastion of support for the Peronist government under President Alberto Fernandez. The results suggest a shift to the right in voters" preferences, and "the market is likely to take a net positive view ... for they increase the probability of regime change in 2023 and more effective checks and balances until then," said Goldman Sachs strategists. But, in the meantime, they warned of risks of a slight shift to more interventionist and populist policies by Frenandez"s administration to rebuild political support. The Argentine economy has struggled with runaway inflation and debt restructuring, and the current government has been dragging it feet on an International Monetary Fund program. Most other Latam currencies firmed against the dollar, with Brazil"s real rising 0.6% as political tension seemed to ebb for now. A protest by Brazilian truckers loyal to President Jair Bolsonaro had largely fizzled out on Friday, a relief for industries that feared supply shortages. Surging inflation has also raised the prospect for another interest rate hike in Brazil at a central bank meeting next week. "Although continued rate hikes are somewhat helpful for BRL, we don"t expect any sustained outperformance while fiscal and political risk premium remains high," strategists at J.P. Morgan wrote in a client note. Stocks in Sao Paulo rallied, with gains being broad-based. Power utility Eletrobras rose 3.2% after a state-run company was created to control assets that cannot be sold in its privatization. Chile"s peso lifted further off three-week lows with eyes on minutes of the previous central bank meeting due to be published on Wednesday. Mexico"s peso rose for the 11th session in 12, while Colombia"s peso inched lower. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1902 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1301.50 -0.57 MSCI LatAm 2418.19 0.89 Brazil Bovespa 116354.84 1.81 Mexico IPC 51494.89 -0.05 Chile IPSA 4401.52 -1.4 Argentina MerVal 79231.88 4.397 Colombia COLCAP 1310.54 -0.76 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.2333 0.62 Mexico peso 19.8860 -0.03 Chile peso 784.9 0.33 Colombia peso 3823.36 0.24 Peru sol 4.1047 -0.35 Argentina peso (interbank) 98.1800 -0.07 Argentina peso (parallel) 178 3.93 (Reporting by Susan Mathew and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Alistair Bell and Lisa Shumaker)

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