Sydney Airport sensibly clears deal for takeoff

  • 9/13/2021
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MELBOURNE, Sept 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Sydney Airport (SYD.AX) shareholders can breathe a little easier. After stonewalling its suitor for a couple of months, the board is finally preparing to open the books to a group led by IFM Investors. The company also said on Monday that it would conditionally recommend a revised A$23.6 billion ($17.4 billion) takeover bid. The second sweetener, at A$8.75 a share, represents 6% more than the initial offer in July and a whopping 51% premium to the undisturbed stock price. Extended lockdowns in Australia’s two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria, have delayed recovery in travel since the first entreaty. Analysts slashed their average forecast for the Australian airport operator’s earnings before interest and tax by about a fifth over the span, according to estimates tracked on Eikon. That makes cash now at a robust enterprise valuation of 25 times projected 2023 EBITDA all the more appealing, even if the price tag falls short of the December 2019 high of around A$9. The buying consortium, which also includes Australian pension funds, is in better position to be patient. According to Breakingviews calculations, a nearly 12% internal rate of return would be theoretically feasible in roughly six years if EBITDA rebounds strongly and then slows to its historical growth rate of about 7% while 30% of cashflow is used to pay down debt. That’s probably a reasonable return in a world of ultra-low interest rates, but also comes with a high degree of risk in a country that is playing it ultra-safe when it comes to Covid-19 and international flights. Follow @jgfarb on Twitter CONTEXT NEWS - Sydney Airport said on Sept. 13 that it intends to grant a group of infrastructure investors the opportunity to conduct due diligence after it sweetened its takeover bid to A$23.6 billion ($17.4 billion). The company added that it intends to recommend that shareholders support the offer if certain conditions are met. - Under terms of the revised proposal, the so-called Sydney Aviation Alliance would pay A$8.75 a share, up from its previous offer of A$8.45. Its original offer of A$8.25 was disclosed on July 5. - The bidding consortium includes IFM Investors and U.S.-based Global Infrastructure Partners, as well as Australian pension funds QSuper and AustralianSuper.

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