What will the Biden administration do if Iran refuses to return to the negotiating table over its nuclear ambitions? There are a few options available and the best may well be a return, even temporarily, to the 2015 deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Perhaps Iran can accept the formula known as “less for more.” This phrase has been circulating in Washington for some time. It means that Iran will agree to enrich uranium at a lower rate. In return, the US will lift more sanctions on Tehran. This would be an ad hoc accord without any formal authorization. Nevertheless, so many things are unclear about how President Joe Biden will deal with Iran if the negotiations in Vienna collapse. From the Iranian side, any analyst can predict several policies. First, Tehran will declare its stances a victory and a defeat for the US and the West. Second, it will blame the US and the West for the failure of the negotiations. Third, it will continue enriching uranium. Iran is determined to be a nuclear power regardless of its uranium enrichment rate, and will eagerly use any funds it can get as a result of even a minor lifting of sanctions to finance its regional ambitions. The crucial thing for Tehran is to isolate the US and make Washington the subject of criticism for its failure to reach an agreement. Maria Maalouf The regime will step up its cooperation with Hezbollah in Lebanon and also coordinate more closely with its affiliated militias in Iraq to make it harder for Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi to govern. There could also be growing economic cooperation between Turkey and Iran, especially if the former increases its role in Afghanistan. This could be one way for Iran to ensure that the Taliban do not do anything to hurt Tehran’s national interests. In addition, it is not clear how an angry France will handle its relations with the US in the context of negotiations with Iran. France is still tough on Iran becoming a nuclear power. But it could establish stronger economic ties with the country if a number of sanctions are lifted. Moreover, things are still vague on how a potential left-wing government in Germany under the Social Democrats might approach Iran. Most likely, it will emulate France in its dealings with Tehran. This could lead to greater German investment in Iran. For sure, Iran will enhance its military and economic cooperation with both China and Russia. The crucial thing for Iran is to isolate the US and make Washington the subject of criticism for its failure to reach an agreement with the regime over its nuclear activities. That would be a major setback for Biden personally. He made it a campaign issue to reverse Donald Trump’s order to quit the deal with Iran. If Biden acknowledges any failure to sign a nuclear deal with Iran, the American people will say that Trump was right. It will also complicate his relations with the Republicans, especially in Congress. They may force him to refuse any future negotiations with Iran. Congress may pass laws preventing the resumption of talks with Iran except under severe conditions, and could well reimpose sanctions. Ultimately, there will be extremely difficult choices if Iran refuses to return to the negotiations, signifying that it will go solo in its campaign to be a nuclear power. The US does not want a nuclear power/nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Ultimately, there could be disagreement between Washington and Israel, as the latter will see a genuine Iranian nuclear threat to its existence. Yet the Biden administration will not support an Israeli pre-emptive attack against Iran’s nuclear reactors, since such an act could embolden Iran’s regional allies to agitate more against American interests in the Middle East and around the world. Each of these scenarios is highly unpopular among many constituencies. As a result, it is more likely that the Biden administration will offer the Iranian regime even more generous concessions in order to quickly reach a nuclear deal. * Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher and writer. She holds an MA in political sociology from the University of Lyon. Twitter: @bilarakib Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view