EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX hits over 5-month low as 'stagflation' fears grow

  • 10/6/2021
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* Mexican peso hits 6-month low, auto production slumps * Brazil"s real at over 5-month low * Chile stocks lead declines among Latam peers (Updates to close) By Ambar Warrick and Susan Mathew Oct 6 (Reuters) - An index of Latin American currencies slipped to a more-than five-month low on Wednesday following weak economic data and as a spike in oil prices stoked fears of overheated inflation. MSCI"s index of Latin American currencies slipped as much as 0.9% to its lowest level since late-April, before cutting some losses. Investors feared that the jump in oil prices could keep price pressures elevated and throttle economic growth in emerging markets. The dollar rode the safe-haven rally high, further denting EM currencies. "Recent spikes in oil prices are negative for emerging markets as they further fuel the stagflation fear," said Jakob Christensen, chief analyst, head of EM research at Danske Bank. Mexico"s peso and Brazil"s real both traded flat after having dropped as much as 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. Data on Wednesday showed automotive production in Brazil and Mexico, Latin America"s two largest economies, plummeted in September, dragged down by an industry-wide semiconductor chip shortage and railroad blockades in Mexico, data showed on Wednesday. While higher oil prices usually benefit the peso, given Mexico is an oil exporter, the currency slumped as market volatility saw investors move out of using the currency for carry trade. In Brazil, separate data showed retail sales fell in August due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Investors were now also awaiting a vote next week over a proposed fuel tax reform - a hot political topic in Brazil, as President Jair Bolsonaro seeks to calm frustrations over rising costs. Currencies of copper exporters Chile and Peru fell around 0.2% each as prices of the red metal slumped on concerns over slowing Chinese demand. A day after Peru"s government struck a deal to avoid road blockades at the Las Bambas copper mine, an indigenous community in the Espinar province blocked a key mining road in protest against the government and Glencore"s Antapaccay copper mine. In Chile, an association of U.S. businesses in Chile warned on Tuesday that a proposal to allow Chileans to draw money from their pension funds for the fourth time since the coronavirus pandemic began could seriously harm the country"s business climate. Strategists at Citi are also watchful of calls by the opposition for the impeachment of President Sebastian Pinera in the light of the "Pandora papers", ahead of general elections next month. Latin American stocks fell, with Chile"s IPSA index sliding 2.3% and having touched an over four-month trough, as electric utility Colbun tumbled after a recent rally had pushed it to six-month highs. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1227.77 -0.71 MSCI LatAm 2199.03 -0.46 Brazil Bovespa 110308.88 -0.13 Mexico IPC 50915.57 -0.28 Chile IPSA 4130.63 -2.26 Argentina MerVal 77360.58 -1.063 Colombia COLCAP 1373.15 -0.73 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.4881 -0.09 Mexico peso 20.5770 -0.12 Chile peso 812.9 -0.18 Colombia peso 3784.57 -0.09 Peru sol 4.137 -0.19 (Reporting by Ambar Warrick and Federica Urso; Editing by Alison Williams and Alistair Bell) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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