UPDATE 1-CEE MARKETS-Zloty rallies on surprise Polish rate increase

  • 10/6/2021
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(Updates after Polish rate hike) By Krisztina Than and Gergely Szakacs BUDAPEST, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The zloty jumped over 1% to a three-week high against the euro after the National Bank of Poland unexpectedly raised interest rates, joining its central European peers in tightening monetary policy to fend off rising inflationary pressure. At 1344 GMT, the zloty was 1.4% stronger versus the euro, with the NBP"s surprise 40-basis-point increase in its benchmark rate to 0.5% reversing its early losses and immediately lifting the Polish currency into the black for 2021. All of the analysts in a Reuters poll had expected rates to remain on hold on Wednesday. Most economists had not expected the NBP to start raising rates before the first quarter of 2022. "It is very surprising that the MPC did not wait until November, despite insisting that there was no risk that inflation was temporary, so they had either contradicted their rhetoric of previous months or changed their views entirely," said Piotr Bielski, head of research at Santander Bank Polska. "The key question is whether this signals further gradual increases or whether there will be a pause after this hike, not a small one after all," he said. "I would assume, however, that it is the latter, we raise rates substantially, and then we will see how the situation is." The Polish index of banking stocks gained as much as 4.2%. Other central European currencies and stocks mostly fell on Wednesday as global sentiment soured with a jump in oil prices fuelling inflation concerns. Amid a strong recovery, consumers in Central Europe are facing some of the highest inflation in the European Union, prompting interest rate hikes in the Czech Republic and Hungary since June, including the biggest move up by the Czech central bank in 24 years. The Romanian central bank also hiked rates on Tuesday. The Hungarian forint was down 0.3%, trimming its early losses, while the Czech crown was 0.2% weaker, Both units had been supported by the tightening stance of their central banks. However, the forint has retreated after gains that started on Friday when Deputy Central Bank Governor Barnabas Virag flagged a further 15-basis-point rate hikes. "The forint"s drop is likely due to a rise in core yields, we had seen the forint weaken when global yields rise," a dealer in Budapest said, adding that although the central bank"s promise to continue its tightening provided support for the forint, this faded amid the global gloom on Wednesday. The leu held steady but some analysts said it may resume its falls amid uncertainty after Romania"s parliament toppled the nine-month-old minority government of Prime Minister Florin Citu. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1544 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previou Daily Change s bid close change in 2021 EURCZK Czech EURHUF Hungary 0 0 EURPLN Polish EURRON Romanian EURHRK Croatian EURRSD Serbian 0 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previou Daily Change s close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1363.34 1362.32 +0.07% +32.73 00 % .BUX Budapest 53236.7 53369.7 -0.25% +26.43 1 8 % .WIG20 Warsaw <.WIG20 2358.30 2364.72 -0.27% +18.87 > % .BETI Buchares 12630.0 12613.4 +0.13% +28.80 t 9 3 % .SBITO Ljubljan <.SBITO 1159.57 1164.79 -0.45% +28.72 P a P> % .CRBEX Zagreb <.CRBEX 2033.61 2032.58 +0.05% +16.92 > % .BELEX Belgrade <.BELEX 802.70 802.65 +0.01% +7.23% 15 15> .SOFIX Sofia <.SOFIX 571.37 573.55 -0.38% +27.67 > % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT= 2-year s CZ5YT= 5-year s CZ10YT s Poland PL2YT= 2-year s PL5YT= 5-year s PL10YT s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ******************************************** ****************** (Reporting by Krisztina Than and Gergely Szakacs, additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Kim Coghill and Emelia Sithole-Matarise) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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