U.S. natgas volatility jumps to a record as prices soar worldwide

  • 10/6/2021
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Volatility in U.S. natural gas futures jumped to a record on Tuesday on the back of an energy crunch in major world markets that has sent prices soaring globally. Natural gas prices are at record levels in Europe and Asia, as major markets like China struggle to find enough fuel to meet demand that has bounced back from the coronavirus-induced downturn faster than anticipated. In Europe, prices this year have rocketed more than 500%, on worries that current low levels of storage will be insufficient for the winter. That has fed through to U.S. natural gas futures, which recently closed at 12-year-highs of $6.31 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). While that is still a far cry from prices in Europe and Asia where natural gas is over five times more expensive, the market has grown increasingly volatile as competition for limited U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports increases. In the United States, implied volatility - a measure of expected fluctuations in the market - surged to an all-time high of 122.5% on Tuesday, topping the prior record of 117.5% reached in November 2018. Part of the reason for the wild moves is merchant commodity firms, hedge funds and other major investors in the market finding themselves exposed to unexpected price rallies. Companies that bet the wrong direction on markets are sometimes forced to shift positions quickly to cover their losses, further adding to the volatility.

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