EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks surge, FX edges higher as oil pressure eases

  • 10/7/2021
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* Polish zloty flat after best day in a year * Hong Kong property stocks rally on new development plan * Russian rouble flat as inflation rises Oct 7 (Reuters) - Most emerging market stocks and currencies rose on Thursday as oil prices retreated from recent highs, although the prospect of U.S. monetary policy tapering and an economic slowdown kept sentiment muted. MSCI’s index of emerging market (EM) stocks jumped 1.8% after sinking to a six-week low earlier, while currencies added 0.2% after oil prices dipped on an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories. Hong Kong stocks surged 3% as the announcement of plans for a new northern metropolis supported real estate stocks, and helped them move past recent jitters over a debt crisis in the sector. Most emerging market currencies benefited from a retreating dollar, as risk appetite improved slightly after heightened volatility through the week. Progress towards the lifting of the U.S. debt ceiling also helped improve sentiment But most currencies, particularly those in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, marked small moves as investors remained concerned over potential policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, ahead of key U.S. payroll data on Friday. Fears of economic growth being throttled by sticky inflation, particularly in EMs, have also weighed on markets in recent sessions. Russia’s rouble rose 0.1%, lagging most of its EM peers after data on Wednesday showed inflation jumped to nearly 7.5% in early October, its highest since June 2016. “The data does not require the central bank to increase the step of the policy rate hike... We expect the central bank will hike the policy rate by 25bps, taking it to 7.00%,” analysts at Credit Suisse wrote in a note. The Polish zloty traded flat against the euro on Thursday after the central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates on Wednesday and pushed the currency to a three-week high. The zloty jumped more than 1% on Wednesday, its best day in more than a year, following the 40 basis-point hike to 0.5%, the first after nine years. “Poland had been in a sticky situation because of its central bank choosing to ignore inflation overshoot, calling it transitory... Given such a fundamental gap, NBP would have to signal strong intent to continue tightening for the zloty to stop underperforming,” Tatha Ghose, FX and EM Analyst at Commerzbank wrote in a note. The move sees Poland join its central European peers in tightening policy as they struggle with high inflation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Hungarian forint was up 0.2%, while the Czech crown lost 0.1%. For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2021, see tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2021, see tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX For TOP NEWS across emerging markets For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see For TURKISH market report, see For RUSSIAN market report, see (Reporting by Ambar Warrick and Federica Urso Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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