TREASURIES-Inflation worry sends two-year yields to more than 18-month high; auctions eyed

  • 10/12/2021
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(Updates throughout, changes byline, dateline; previous Singapore) By Chuck Mikolajczak NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Yields on the U.S. two-year Treasury note jumped to their highest level in more than 18 months on Tuesday, as climbing oil prices added to the inflationary picture and heightened expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be forced to take action earlier than currently anticipated. The yield on the 2-year was up 1.8 basis points to 0.336% after reaching as high as 0.356%, its highest level since March 25, 2020. Brent crude prices have climbed for more than five straight weeks, hitting a two-year high of $84.60 on Monday, as climbing demand and clogs in the supply chain have contributed to rising prices in other commodities as well. The yield on the two-year eased somewhat as crude prices oscillated around the unchanged mark. "Since we have had consecutive days of energy costs going higher the market feels as if the Fed’s hands might be getting a little more tied," said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. "The transitory theme is still there; it is just that before transitory was tied more to bottlenecks and supply issues, and now on top of that you could throw in commodity costs going higher ... the market is kind of throwing up their hands a little bit and saying there is inflationary pressures coming from different angles, which could make things problematic for the Fed." Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida will speak on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy at 11:15 a.m. EDT (1515 GMT) and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on inflation at 12:30 p.m. EDT (1630 GMT). The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.8 basis points to 1.587%. Investors will closely monitor Wednesday"s consumer price index data for September, with expectations calling for a monthly rise of 0.3%. The U.S. Treasury will auction $58 billion of three-year notes at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) and $38 billion of 10-year notes at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT) on Tuesday. An auction of $24 billion of 30-year bonds is scheduled on Wednesday. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 4.4 basis points to 2.116%. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at 125.0 basis points after hitting a 3-1/2-month high of 129.7 on Friday. October 12 Tuesday 10:14AM New York / 1414 GMT Price US T BONDS DEC1 158-12/32 0-29/32 10YR TNotes DEC1 131-44/256 0-84/256 Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.05 0.0507 0.000 Six-month bills 0.0575 0.0583 -0.003 Two-year note 99-213/256 0.3359 0.018 Three-year note 99-92/256 0.5964 0.016 Five-year note 99-24/256 1.0629 0.015 Seven-year note 99-28/256 1.3846 -0.002 10-year note 96-240/256 1.5874 -0.018 30-year bond 97-112/256 2.1162 -0.044 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 11.75 0.75 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 15.25 1.00 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 8.25 -0.25 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 2.00 0.00 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -24.00 1.00 spread (Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; editing by Jonathan Oatis) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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