EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real slips as inflation rises, Latam FX down

  • 10/26/2021
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* Brazil"s real down 0.4% * Petrobras slips after Monday"s surge * Strong Q3, buyback lift EDP Energias do Brasil (Adds details, updates prices) By Susan Mathew and Ambar Warrick Oct 26 (Reuters) - Brazil"s real fell on Tuesday as rising inflation fed concerns that the continuation of aggressive monetary policy tightening might choke economic growth, while most other Latin American currencies edged lower against a steady dollar. The real slipped 0.4% as data showed Brazil"s inflation rose more than expected in the month to mid-October, driven by higher fuel and electricity prices - the fastest monthly pace of increase for prices since February 2016. "(The data) increases the likelihood of (Brazil"s monetary policy committee) Copom accelerating the hiking pace tomorrow," said strategists at Citi. According to a Reuters poll last week, the benchmark Selic rate is expected to be raised by 100 basis points on Wednesday. Positive tax revenue data for September helped the real recoup some of the day"s losses. But the currency had plummeted to a six-month low recently on fears of the government breaching its spending cap. Economists at Latin America"s largest bank Itau Unibanco warned on Monday that Brazil"s economy is likely to shrink next year as the central bank hikes interest rates amid concerns over more government spending. "In view of the presidential elections next year, it seems very unlikely that ... Bolsonaro will tighten the fiscal policy belt. ... As a result, the BRL is likely to remain amongst the underperformers of the emerging market currencies," said You Na Park-Heger, an FX and EM analyst at Commerzbank. Peru"s sol fell 0.4%, extending losses to a fourth straight session. Peru"s opposition-led Congress pushed back a confirmation vote on the country"s new Cabinet until next Thursday, in order to mourn the death of a lawmaker who suddenly passed away on Monday. Colombia"s peso fell 0.1%, while Chile"s currency added 0.4%. Fitch Ratings said Colombia and Chile should adopt additional measures to tighten fiscal deficits as their debts are likely to remain high with increasing political uncertainty. Most other Latam currencies retreated slightly, as the dollar kept to a tight range ahead of several major central bank meetings. After rising 2.3% to post its best day in more than two months on Monday, Brazil"s Bovespa stock index fell 1.7% with banks leading losses. Petrobras slipped 0.4% after surging almost 7% on Monday when Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro reiterated that he is considering privatizing the state-run oil company. Energy company EDP Energias do Brasil jumped 2.9% after reporting a 70% jump in quarterly earnings from a year ago and approved a share buyback. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies: Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1296.79 -0.04 MSCI LatAm 2188.01 -0.48 Brazil Bovespa 106831.32 -1.73 Mexico IPC 51981.05 0.28 Chile IPSA 4242.75 1.6 Argentina MerVal 89200.16 -0.214 Colombia COLCAP 1411.15 0.65 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.5713 -0.35 Mexico peso 20.2010 -0.24 Chile peso 804.5 0.36 Colombia peso 3769.03 -0.12 Peru sol 3.9828 -0.43 Argentina peso 99.5400 -0.05 (interbank) (Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

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