China's yuan largely flat as cash conditions tighten towards month-end

  • 10/27/2021
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SHANGHAI, Oct 27 (Reuters) - China"s yuan was largely flat against the dollar on Wednesday, as tight, month-end liquidity in the interbank market provided some support to the local currency, offseting pressure from a slightly stronger greenback. Prior to market opening, the People"s Bank of China set the midpoint rate at 6.3856 per dollar, 34 pips or 0.05% firmer than the previous fix of 6.3890, which was the strongest level since June 11. In the spot market, the onshore yuan opened at 6.3810 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.3849 by midday, 19 pips weaker than the previous late session close. The onshore spot yuan traded in a very tight range of about 70 pips on Wednesday morning, with some traders noting that the Chinese yuan has been consolidating at around 6.38 per dollar after touching a four-month high on Monday. Some market participants said they traded cautiously on expectations state banks could act to prevent the yuan from appreciating too fast to the key 6.35 per dollar mark - which would be a 2021 high for the yuan. "In that case, the yuan could quickly test the following key level of 6.3 per dollar," said a trader at a foreign bank. The yuan was underpinned by tight cash conditions in the interbank market early on Wednesday. Reflecting the tight liquidity, the volume-weighted average rate of the benchmark overnight repo traded in the interbank market jumped to a one-week high of 1.9184%, up about 38 basis points from a day earlier. But some market analysts said they did not expect the recent strength in the yuan to persist. "We believe the CNY is unlikely to continue appreciating in the medium and long term, considering the expected re-strengthening of the USD and reduction in China"s trade surplus and easing of China"s monetary policy," analysts at CICC said in a note, expecting the yuan to face strong resistance at around 6.36 per dollar. Some analysts say China"s export growth could slow and the trade surplus narrow as economies around the world reopen after being shut due to COVID-19 restrictions, resuming local production and dampening demand for Chinese goods. Meanwhile, some analysts expect China"s accommodative stance to increasingly diverge from the monetary policies of other major economies, many of whom are moving towards withdrawing pandemic-era stimulus. That growing divergence could trigger capital outflows and pressure the yuan. The broad dollar index stood at 93.911 around midday, while the offshore yuan was trading at 6.383 per dollar. The yuan market at 0401 GMT: ONSHORE SPOT: Item Current Previous Change PBOC midpoint 6.3856 6.389 0.05% Spot yuan 6.3849 6.383 -0.03% Divergence from -0.01% midpoint* Spot change YTD 2.25% Spot change since 2005 29.63% revaluation Key indexes: Item Current Previous Change Thomson 100.49 100.52 0.0 Reuters/HKEX CNH index Dollar index 93.911 93.956 0.0 *Divergence of the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number indicates that spot yuan is trading stronger than the midpoint. The People"s Bank of China (PBOC) allows the exchange rate to rise or fall 2% from official midpoint rate it sets each morning. OFFSHORE CNH MARKET Instrument Current Difference from onshore Offshore spot yuan 6.383 0.03% * Offshore 6.5651 -2.73% non-deliverable forwards ** *Premium for offshore spot over onshore **Figure reflects difference from PBOC"s official midpoint, since non-deliverable forwards are settled against the midpoint. . (Reporting by Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa)

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