Sterling recovers slightly versus euro; investors weigh up rate hike bets

  • 10/29/2021
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LONDON, Oct 29(Reuters) - Sterling recovered some of the previous session’s losses against the euro on Friday but was little changed against the dollar, struggling to break above $1.38, as market attention focused on the possibility of a Bank of England rate hike next week. The British currency fell against the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank meeting kept investors expecting a rate hike in 2022 and did not calm their fears about surging inflation, leading to a jump in euro zone bond yields and a stronger euro. But the pound went some way to reversing this move in early trading on Friday, as the euro slipped and the pair changed hands at 84.625 pence per euro at 0802 GMT, down 0.1% from the previous session’s high of 84.750. Versus the dollar, sterling was little changed at $1.3784, on track for a weekly gain of 0.2%. The pound’s moves this week have been driven by speculation over whether the Bank of England will hike rates at its meeting on Nov. 4, or whether concerns about the possible longer-term hit to economic growth stemming from supply chain disruptions and Brexit will cause the bank to hold back. Early on Friday, markets were pricing in a 62% chance of a hike at next week’s meeting, up from a 56% chance in the previous session, according to data from CME. “Our suspicion is that the pound should find some support as we approach Thursday’s BoE meeting, and with a lot of positives in the price for the EUR, the 0.8500 resistance should hold for now,” wrote ING FX strategists in a note to clients. Deutsche Bank strategists said in a client note on Friday that they had changed their view and now expect the BoE to deliver its first post-pandemic rate hike at meeting next week. “Ultimately, we think a weaker supply outlook combined with surging and stickier inflation will provide the majority of the MPC (monetary policy committee) enough ammunition to pull the trigger on a first rate move,” Deutsche Bank said. The British public’s expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to the highest since 2008 this month, Citi said earlier this week, based on its monthly survey with pollsters YouGov. Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft Editing by Mark Heinrich

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