Market, central bank board divided ahead of Colombia rate decision

  • 10/29/2021
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BOGOTA, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Colombia’s central bank board is set to raise its benchmark interest rate at its meeting on Friday, but the market - and likely the seven-member board - is divided over how sharply policymakers will increase borrowing costs. All 19 analysts in a Reuters survey last week predicted an uptick in the rate, with 10 backing a 25 basis point increase to 2.25% and nine projecting a 50 basis point uptick to 2.5%. Rising inflation will explain the seven-member board’s decision, analysts said. Consumer prices increased 4.51% in the 12 months to September, well above the bank’s 3% target. Inflation looks set to continue to rise amid global supply chain delays and stronger-than-expected demand as Colombia’s economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. An increase would mark the second consecutive month the board has raised the rate while divided over how much it should increase it. Four board members supported September’s 25-point increase, while three backed a half-point rise. “It’s a close call because it will be narrow like last time,” said Andres Pardo, head of strategy for Latin America at XP Investments. “There’s a significant risk that the decision this month will be for 50 basis points, but for now I think the good behavior of the peso, the fact that inflation won’t have accelerated in the last month, together with an unexpected sequential contraction of economic growth in August, could keep normalization gradual at this meeting,” he said. Last month the bank raised its gross domestic product growth projection for this year to 8.6%, from a previous figure of 7.5%. But monthly GDP growth showed a moderation in August, falling 1.9% compared to the July figure, to 13.2% The board will raise borrowing costs to 2.75% by the close of the year and to 4.5% at the end of 2022, analysts said. (Reporting by Nelson Bocanegra; Writing by Julia Symmes Cobb; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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