INSTANT VIEW-Australia's central bank holds rates, drops yield target

  • 11/2/2021
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SINGAPORE, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Australia’s central bank left its cash rate at a record low of 0.1% on Tuesday, but dropped both a commitment to keeping bond yields low and its projection of no hike in interest rates until 2024. MARKET REACTION: Yields on three-year bonds the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had so far targeted fell initially and then rose around 3 basis points to 0.758%, while benchmark 3-year yields were down 5 basis points at 0.99%. Stocks dipped and the Australian dollar fell 0.25% to $0.74975, but stayed within a two-week range. COMMENTARY: RAY ATTRILL, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, SYDNEY: “The RBA have made every effort to sound dovish. “There’s nothing in the statement to endorse market pricing that has the RBA moving in 2022, so in that sense there’s clearly an attempt to push back on market pricing. “Their forecasts, which we get on Friday, could be consistent with a move in 2023, but certainly not in 2022, and I think that’s where the market reaction has come from. “In the last week or so there’s been a tug of war between the big falls we’ve seen in commodity prices – particularly for coal and iron ore futures – and the big moves we’ve seen in Aussie interest rates, particularly real interest rates. Arguably now, that tug of war for the moment is being resolved with both lower rates and falling commodity prices, so on that basis I would say that the risk is that we could see some further slippage in the Aussie dollar near term.” “I don’t think the Aussie dollar is going to come to tremendous harm here, but at the moment you’ve got pull from both commodity prices and a check on the rise in interest rates, so the near-term path of least resistance should be down.” (Reporting by Kevin Buckland and Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo, Tom Westbrook in Singapore, Alun John in Hong Kong Compiled by Vidya Ranganathan Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

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