RPT-GRAPHIC-Take Five: It's now or never

  • 11/1/2021
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(Repeats Friday story, updates Japan entry) LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - With a UN warning that "the clock is ticking loudly" here ringing in their ears, governments attending the COP26 talks in Scotland will try to agree emissions cuts to cap global warming and avert a climate catastrophe. Key meetings loom also at the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the OPEC+ oil producers group. And Japan goes to the polls. 1/COP OUT World leaders and policymakers from 200 countries here are congregating in the city of Glasgow for the COP26 climate talks aimed at tackling global warming. Recent extreme weather events - floods, droughts and forest fires, among others - leave no doubt there is a pressing need for progress here. But so far, few of the top emitting eciu.net/netzerotracker countries have legislated for net zero emissions. The leaders of Russia and China won"t even attend the summit and India has rejected calls here to announce zero-carbon goals. A target of raising $100 billion annually to help developing countries tackle climate change consequences is yet to be met despite an original 2020 deadline. Amid myriad events and announcements, markets will have plenty to chew over, especially in assessing how new technology, tighter regulations and shifting trends may affect companies and investors. 2/TAPER TIME The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a pullback in asset purchases when its policy meeting ends on Wednesday. Plans to "taper" $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities are well telegraphed. here But that stimulus has been a significant prop for asset prices, so removing it could have unforeseen results. Investors are also keen for hints about when the Fed might start raising interest rates. Its chief Jerome Powell has said here that while it is time to start cutting asset purchases, it"s too early to touch the interest rate dial. We will also get a view of the jobs market from Friday"s monthly payrolls report -- especially interesting following below-forecast Q3 GDP here and September"s steep drop in job creation here. 3/A BOE HIKE - OR NOT The Bank of England is preparing to join the ranks of central banks that have embarked on raising interest rates. The question is only whether it will move at its Thursday meeting or give itself more time. An expansionary budget here may have given the green light for a hike. But BoE action hinges on whether it thinks inflation - forecast to top 5% as the British economy motors out of the pandemic - will prove as transitory as forecast. Soaring inflation here and hawkish comments from policymakers including Governor Andrew Bailey have sparked a dramatic repricing of rate expectations - a 0.15% rate rise to 0.25% is priced for Thursday, with another move expected in December. Fragile economic growth means the BoE must tread carefully. But absent a rate hike, anything short of a significantly hawkish message could prove painful for sterling. 4/NO MORE FROM OPEC+ With $80-plus crude prices lifting inflation and clouding growth prospects, governments of energy-consuming nations are urging OPEC+ to stump up more oil. But the group, meeting on Thursday here, is likely to stick to the script and raise output in December by no more than what was previously agreed. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Reuters recently here he expected the alliance to add 400,000 barrels per day of production, as previously agreed. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman too has dismissed calls here by consumer nations to speed up the rate of production increases. The group does not see crude shortages in the market, he said. Unsurprisingly, oil price forecasts are nudging higher. 5/KISHIDA’S CAREER Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who took office a month ago, saw his ruling LDP defy expectations here and hold its strong majority in Sunday"s parliamentary election, solidifying his position in a fractious party. The solid victory will likely take here pressure off Kishida to inflate the size of a pandemic-relief stimulus package, easing market fears of massive bond issuance. At a news conference, the prime minister signalled he would pursue defence policies aimed at deterring China, address climate change and accelerate recovery from the pandemic. Markets are enjoying his unexpectedly comfortable election victory: Japan’s Nikkei gained 2.3% while the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell as worries over new debt sales to fund economic stimulus were eased. The yen weakened against the dollar, flirting with an almost four year trough hit in October. Reporting by Karin Strohecker, Tommy Wilkes and Ahmad Ghaddar in London; Kevin Buckland in Tokyo and Lewis Krauskopf in New York; Compiled by Sujata Rao; Editing by Catherine Evans

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