Covid infections have fallen among secondary schoolchildren in England for the first time in weeks, but experts from the government’s pandemic advisory body are warning that deaths and hospitalisations from the disease across the UK could soar over the next nine days. Figures released on Friday by the Office for National Statistics show that infection rates among children aged 11 to 16 in school years seven to 11 dropped to 7.5% in the week ending 30 October, ending rises throughout September, and down from a high of 9.1% the week before. While the infection rate is still far higher than in any other age group in the UK, scientists said the downturn may signify that cases have peaked in England, at least for the time being. While the data includes the October half-term week when children mixed less, the ONS said the tests performed in the week ending 30 October would have identified those infected before the break. The ONS figures raised hopes that the wave of disease that swept through schools at the start of the autumn term may finally be on the decline. “For the first time in several weeks, we are seeing a decrease in infections among secondary school-aged children in England, although rates do remain high,” said Sarah Crofts, the head of analytical outputs for the ONS Covid-19 infection survey. “We will continue to closely monitor infection rates in this age group to see any impact of half-term in next week’s data.” The data comes amid new projections from a subcommittee of experts of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) that deaths from Covid across the four home nations could rise sharply from now until Sunday week, 14 November. Estimates drawn up by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) show that the daily death toll could rise from the 155 recorded on 27 October – the day it met – to potentially as many as 350 by 14 November. The biggest increases could come in England and Wales, with a much smaller rise in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The latest figures from the ONS has revealed that in the week ending 22 October, 752 deaths occurred in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, a slight decrease of 15% from the previous week, in which 882 deaths were recorded. In the month of October there has generally been a decrease in Covid-19 deaths across the UK. From 1 October to 22 October, 2,574 deaths occurred where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. That was down by a fifth on the same period in September, where there were 3,227 deaths. Government data on coronavirus deaths, based on whether a death occurred within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test, reveal that in the week to 3 November, a total of 877 deaths were recorded, a slight decrease of 14% on the 1,018 deaths seen in the previous week. The ONS report paints an uncertain picture for the UK with an estimated 1,103,300 people infected in England in the week ending 30 October, or one in 50 people, a similar figure to the week before. According to the study, infections in England rose more slowly in the latest two weeks, continued to increase in Northern Ireland, with the trend uncertain in Wales and Scotland. The ONS report states: “It is too early to determine the impact of the half-term holiday on the numbers of infections among school-aged children. This is because the tests that were carried out during the week ending 30 October will have identified positive cases from those who became infected before the half-term period.” Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the report provided “some reassurance” that Covid infections in England may have peaked and supports what has been seen in the daily case reports, which have been falling for a couple of weeks.