UPDATE 2-Euro zone bond yields rise, but markets calmer after roller-coaster ride

  • 11/8/2021
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(Adds background, updates prices) LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Sovereign borrowing costs across the euro area rose on Monday but kept recent multi-week lows in sight thanks to major central banks talking down prospects for imminent rate hikes in the face of sticky inflation. A rise in oil prices and the passing of a long-delayed $1 trillion U.S. infrastructure bill helped lift market inflation expectations and explained the mild sell off in world bond markets, analysts said. European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane, meanwhile, became the latest central bank official to add his voice to the global push-back against aggressive market pricing for higher interest rates. He said that tightening monetary policy to temper the current bout of inflation in the euro zone would be counterproductive. Having fallen sharply on Friday, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield was 3 bps higher at -0.25% but kept Friday’s six-week lows in sight. Italy’s 10-year bond yield briefly touched a three-week low at about 0.87% before heading back up. It was last up around 1 basis points (bps) at 0.90%. German and Italian 10-year bond yields fell 18-25 bps each last week as a number of major central banks pushed back against a growing perception in bond markets that tighter monetary policy is on its way. “The market looks set to move into calmer waters this week,” said Rainer Guntermann, a rates strategist at Commerzbank. “The sharp countermoves in yields, curves and spreads amid waning rate hike expectations face a reality check also given the light agenda over the next few days.” The sharp drop in yields last week flattened Germany’s bond yield curve, pushing the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields to around 45 bps - not far off its tightest levels since September. Last week’s rebound in bond markets as prices shot up, contrasted with the previous week when yields rose sharply and prices fell, as investors positioned for aggressive rates hikes from the likes of the ECB as early as next year. “We have seen a wash out in futures and forwards in money markets and the positioning is cleaner now,” said DZ Bank rates strategist Rene Albrecht. A key market gauge of long-term euro zone inflation expectations rose to its highest in about 1-1/2 weeks at 1.9761%. Elsewhere, ratings agency Moody’s on Friday affirmed France’s AA rating with a negative outlook. It decided not to update Italy’s sovereign rating, which analysts said essentially confirmed the Italian rating at Baa3, one notch above non-investment grade, with a stable outlook. This follows improvements in Italy’s rating outlook by S&P to “positive” from “stable” and the rating trend by DBRS to “stable” from “negative” last month. Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe, additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo, Editing by Hugh Lawson

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