EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX gains, Mexican rate hike expected as inflation surges

  • 11/9/2021
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* Mexican consumer prices rise 6.24% in the year through October * Brazil"s real hits three-week high, stocks jump * Bolsonaro set to join the center-right Liberal Party (Adds details, updates prices) By Shashank Nayar and Ambar Warrick Nov 9 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies gained on Tuesday, with Brazil"s real rallying more than 1% against a steady dollar, while a spike in Mexican inflation raised bets for another interest rate hike later this week. The Mexican peso was flat after consumer prices rose 6.24% in the year through October, more than double the central bank"s target, feeding concerns that increasing prices will weigh on an economic recovery. Mexico"s central bank, known locally as Banxico, will likely raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5% on Thursday in the wake of rising price pressures, according to a Reuters poll. Some analysts forecast a larger hike. "Rate hike expectations for Banxico ahead of the Fed meeting last week had risen considerably with the swap market pricing in rate hikes of up to 100bp until year-end, which points towards rate steps of 50bp," wrote Elisabeth Andreae, an analyst at Commerzbank. Brazil"s real jumped 1.2% to a three-week high. With fiscal spending already a worry, President Jair Bolsonaro is raising pressure on lawmakers regarding an amendment to expand government spending next year, allowing him to ramp up welfare programs during his re-election campaign. Bolsonaro, whose popularity is sliding, is set to join the center-right Liberal Party. Sao Paulo-listed stocks rose 1.3%, with a slew of corporate updates in the spotlight. Shares of state-controlled lender Banco do Brasil SA rose 0.6% after its chief financial officer said the bank will seek to increase profitability in the coming quarters. Pet products retailer Petz gained 6.1% on strong earnings and guidance, while airline Gol fell 2.5% after it reported a net loss for the third quarter as traffic remained below pre-pandemic levels. The dollar was stable against a basket of currencies. Investors now await inflation data due on Wednesday, which may offer clues as to when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. The currency of the world"s top copper exporter, Chile , jumped 1.3% to a more-than-one-month high of 791.7 against the dollar. But Chile cut its forecast for mining investments through 2030 by 6.9% as two projects were removed. Meanwhile, impeachment proceedings against Chile"s center-right President Sebastián Piñera, over allegations of irregularities in the sale of a mining firm, will advance to the Senate after being approved by a majority of deputies in the lower chamber. This comes just weeks before the presidential elections. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies: Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1272.07 0.26 MSCI LatAm 2188.95 1.32 Brazil Bovespa 106086.24 1.25 Mexico IPC 51966.59 -0.55 Chile IPSA 4452.84 2.06 Argentina MerVal 94465.48 -1.644 Colombia COLCAP 1377.27 -1.22 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.4737 1.23 Mexico peso 20.3109 0.04 Chile peso 791.7 1.34 Colombia peso 3864.52 0.26 Peru sol 4.0086 -0.14 Argentina peso 100.1100 -0.03 (interbank) (Reporting by Shashank Nayar and Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

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