EMERGING MARKETS-Currencies drop as surge in U.S. inflation raises rate hike bets

  • 11/10/2021
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* Turkish lira hits record lows * U.S. October consumer prices jump more than expected to 6.2% * Brazil"s consumer prices rise 1.25% in October Nov 10 (Reuters) - Some emerging market currencies deepened losses, with the Turkish lira hitting record lows, while others pared gains on Wednesday, as a jump in U.S. consumer inflation raised rate hike bets there and dampened the outlook for riskier currencies. U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected to 6.2% in October as the cost of gasoline and food surged, leading to the biggest annual gain since 1990, further signs that inflation could remain uncomfortably high well into next year amid snarled global supply chains. The data raised the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve which generally won"t bode well for currencies in emerging economies as it raises debt burdens and narrows interest rate differentials for currencies. "The Federal Reserve is starting to taper its stimulus and might be forced to hike interest rates sooner due to rising inflation," said Nancy Davis, founder Quadratic Capital Management. The Turkish lira which hit record lows prior to the data, weakened further, down 1.2% with a strong dollar adding to pressures from rising oil price pressures on the crude importer. South Africa"s rand slumped 1.3%, while Russia"s rouble erased all its losses before trading back at levels before the data. In Latin America, Mexico"s peso led losses, down 0.3%. BRAZIL"s REAL RALLIES Brazil"s real outperformed, rallying around 0.8%, extending previous session gains. Amid worries that spending is already high, the Chamber of Deputies approved a proposal towards higher fiscal spending, late on Tuesday night. Now, the proposal must go to the Senate, where it needs to be approved in two rounds of voting to enter into force. President Jair Bolsonaro has been pushing for the bill seeking to expand his social welfare program ahead of elections next year as his popularity slides. It is becoming clearer that the government and its allies have the numbers to block the amendment proposals and most likely approve the bill, said Citi strategists. "We believe this reinforces the thesis that the approval of the (proposal) may allow the market to move on without too much of a negative impact," they said, but warned that the Senate discussion keeps risks alive. Meanwhile, Brazil"s consumer prices as measured by the benchmark IPCA index, rose 1.25% in October, above market forecasts, signaling the central bank will stay on its aggressive tightening stance. Rising copper prices helped top producer Chile"s peso rise 0.3% extending gains after hitting an over one-month high in the previous session. In Peru, protesters blocked the Las Bambas copper transport road again. The sol currency was down 0.2%. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1430 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1277.00 0.32 MSCI LatAm 2202.09 0.7 Brazil Bovespa 106082.88 0.52 Mexico IPC - - Chile IPSA 4434.73 -0.8 Argentina MerVal 95387.00 1.066 Colombia COLCAP 1385.88 0.09 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.4440 0.85 Mexico peso 20.3648 -0.31 Chile peso 789.4 0.35 Colombia peso 3869.54 -0.13 Peru sol 4.0075 0.05 Argentina peso 100.1300 -0.01 (interbank) (Reporting by Shashank Nayar and Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

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