When in trouble, Boris Johnson flees to his comfort zone. Just as Brexit havoc made him, so Brexit mayhem may yet save him. Johnson may hope to turn up the heat under that cauldron to provoke retaliatory action from the EU, which he could then blame on Brussels and President Macron. But this will be nothing more than a seductive distraction from his battalion of troubles. This week, Johnson may have felt intimations of political mortality as his loyal press turned on him over charges of government corruption: it was not just the Daily Mail and Sun, but even the Express. Today the Spectator’s editor excoriates Johnson’s “court of chaos”. Johnson sent Tory MPs out to shame themselves by voting for sleaze in parliament and sewage in the rivers. Now, they may not obey him so readily. He has already betrayed those on his party’s right and left with his machinations, leading his MPs through 43 dizzying U-turns. His popularity is at a record net -27 low, and his party’s lead has been lost. So where does he turn? Johnson has no happy place in any area of policy. The NHS is boiling over, with a hard winter and flu season yet to come. The social care crisis is blocking NHS beds (though didn’t Johnson say his tax levy would fix it?). He won no kudos for his leadership of the G7 or Cop26. The cost-of-living crunch bears down on households, while those who have lost universal credit suffer outright hardship. As the PM gazes at his dumb obedients round the cabinet table, each one fronts a department in trouble. But Johnson will always have Brexit. After a month of fruitless talks, Lord Frost yesterday told the House of Lords that suspending the Northern Ireland part of the Brexit deal will be the “only option” if negotiations fail. Frost says the threshold to trigger article 16, suspending the agreement, has already been reached – a claim that is tantamount to a declaration of trade war. Speaking to EU ambassadors after those tortuous talks, the European commission vice-president Maroš Šefčovič warned of “serious consequences”. Ursula von der Leyen emerged yesterday from the White House with presidential support for retaliation if the UK upends the Northern Ireland protocol. Frost likes to provoke. What effrontery to admonish the EU to “stay calm” and “turn away from confrontation” while accusing the bloc of protecting “their own interests” ahead of “supporting the peace process and the people of Northern Ireland”. Peace in Northern Ireland rates low in Johnson’s thinking, but if he did stoke real trouble the blame would land squarely with him. A trade war takes time to unfurl. The triggering of article 16 would be followed by a one-month cooling-off delay and then talks and more talks. It takes a whole year before a trade deal can be rescinded. That may feel like a pleasingly long time for belligerent war-play from a PM who never thinks beyond one day. Johnson hasn’t many weapons, so he has already thrown out a self-harming threat to withdraw from joint EU Horizon research programmes, taking out the UK’s £15bn, to the horror of UK scientists, who fear being cut off from the mainstream. Why would the French, with an upcoming election, politely stick to Britain’s trade-war timetable? They could quite legally slow traffic at our ports with increasingly thorough lorry checks, causing queues halfway up the country. Maybe Johnson wants such retaliation to stir up outrage against France and the EU, in order to reassemble his old alliance of leavers for a second Agincourt of plucky little Englanders against the massed EU ranks. But this might become yet another policy landmine, rather than useful distraction. What if supply chains are snarled up, and people start to connect wage stagnation and price rises to the 4% loss of GDP that the OBR has blamed on Brexit? What if most people are just sick to death of a never-ending Brexit, which they thought had already been “done”? Current polling gives an insight here. NatCen’s What the UK Thinks asks, “How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating/handling Britain’s exit from the EU?” To that, 57% say badly; 31% well. “Do you think Brexit is having a generally good or bad impact on the economy as a whole?” Here it’s 44% saying bad, 25% good. “In hindsight do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?” This time it’s 39% right, 48% wrong. Of course, this could all swivel in a patriotic anti-French hullabaloo, but the numbers suggest a growing understanding of Brexit untruths. If Johnson ignites this turmoil, Keir Starmer’s “make Brexit work” promise could begin to get traction. Against a backdrop of Brexit mayhem, letting the grown-ups sit down to smooth out trade obstacles might seem an attractive prospect. For as long as the UK doesn’t fall below EU food and safety standards, we could let trade flow. The “sovereign” option to set our own rules would remain, but who wants them lowered anyway? We could strike a deal to let our musicians and performers sell their wares on the continent. This would all require tiptoeing gently; any suggestions of rejoining the single market would have Labour remoaners accused of a backdoor Brexit in name only. But over time, UK businesses looking across the Irish sea will be able to see Northern Ireland flourishing by staying in. Indeed, the industry body Manufacturing NI tells me of a 61% increase in sales to the Republic and order books brimming with sales diverted from the British mainland. Johnson’s trade war increasingly looks like a Labour opportunity. Wiser voices warn the PM to step back. If article 16 is triggered, expert observers, such as Anand Menon of The UK in a Changing Europe, think a limited deal can still be struck on some trade obstacles. But it’s legally impossible to reverse the UK’s signature to the agreement that the European court of justice will be the arbitrator of trade disputes. On this, Johnson has backed himself into a corner: will he make a humiliating compromise, or fight on for the political fun of it, whatever the damage, and whatever the risks to peace in Northern Ireland? Loudmouthed Frost goes back into talks tomorrow. This article was amended on 11 November 2021. The UK hosted the G7 summit this year, not the G20 one as stated in an earlier version. The latter took place in Italy.