UPDATE 1-CEE MARKETS-Forint falls on rate hike uncertainty, MOL hit by fuel price cap

  • 11/11/2021
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The Hungarian forint hit a two-week low on Thursday, underperforming regional peers as a firmer dollar pressured emerging markets and uncertainty prevailed over the pace of a rate hike by the country"s central bank next week. Budapest stocks lost 0.72% as energy group MOL dropped after the government said it would impose a cap on fuel prices to keep a lid on surging inflation. MOL"s stock slid over 6% to a 1-1/2-month low, before paring losses to trade down 3.66% by 1132 GMT. The forint fell 0.66% to 356.75 against the euro as a strong dollar weighed on emerging currencies, three FX traders in Budapest said. The greenback was perched at 20-month highs against the euro and other currencies after the hottest U.S. inflation reading in a generation encouraged bets on interest rate hikes. "The uncertainty ahead of the rate meeting is adding to the forint"s woes," one trader said. "Everyone is trying to figure out how far the bank is willing to go. Investors agree that a 15 basis-point hike is not going to be enough." "The market is not yet convinced that the bank is willing to deliver a hefty hike, and that shows in the price," another trader said. The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) slowed the pace of its tightening in September and hiked its base rate by 15 basis points in September and then again in October. A Reuters poll of analysts expects a 30 basis-point hike to 2.1% on Tuesday after larger-than-expected hikes by the Czech and Polish central banks and a surge in inflation that appears to have caught the NBH off guard. Hungarian inflation jumped to 6.5% year-on-year in October. The Czech crown eased 0.31% to 25.2850 versus the common currency. The Romanian leu was a touch higher after the central bank significantly lifted its annual inflation forecast, expecting inflation to reach 7.5% in December, compared with a previous forecast of 5.6%. Markets in Poland were closed for a national holiday. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1232 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech % EURHUF= Hungary 0 EURPLN= Polish EURRON= Romanian EURHRK= Croatian % EURRSD= Serbian 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1376.14 1373.710 +0.18% +33.9 0 8% .BUX Budapest 53007.2 53389.23 -0.72% +25.8 3 9% .WIG20 Warsaw 2366.59 2366.59 +0.00% +19.2 8% .BETI Buchares 12831.6 12779.74 +0.41% +30.8 t 3 6% .SBITOP Ljubljan <.SBITOP 1212.47 1209.14 +0.28% +34.5 a > 9% .CRBEX Zagreb 2005.67 2004.32 +0.07% +15.3 2% .BELEX1 Belgrade <.BELEX1 806.30 806.30 +0.00% +7.71 5 5> % .SOFIX Sofia 605.52 603.70 +0.30% +35.3 0% Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT=R 2-year s CZ5YT=R 5-year s CZ10YT= s Poland PL2YT=R 2-year s PL5YT=R 5-year s PL10YT= s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interb ank Czech 4.11 4.09 3.99 3.10 Rep Hungary 3.32 3.92 4.24 2.15 Poland 2.97 3.25 3.32 1.58 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************** **************** (Reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Aditya Soni)

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