(Adds data, Fed speakers, updates prices) By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday in choppy trading after data showed that U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in October and before the U.S. Treasury"s sale of 20-year bonds on Wednesday. The retail gains came as Americans eagerly started their holiday shopping early to avoid empty shelves amid shortages of some goods, giving the economy a lift at the start of the fourth quarter. Retail sales surged 1.7% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for September was revised higher to show retail sales increased 0.8% instead of 0.7% as previously reported. Sales have now risen for three straight months. The data is “continuing to suggest the economy is recovering quite quickly, and leaning against the Fed’s notion that inflation may be transitory,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, an interest rate strategist at TD Securities in New York. A separate report showed that production at U.S. factories rebounded more than expected in October as the drag from Hurricane Ida faded and motor vehicle output picked up. But manufacturing continues to be constrained by shortages of raw materials and labor. Yields have jumped since data last Wednesday showed U.S. consumer prices posted their biggest gain in 31 years in October. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have maintained that inflation is transitory and likely to moderate next year. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Tuesday that the Fed should "tack in a more hawkish direction" over its next couple of meetings to prepare in case inflation does not begin to ease. Two other Fed officials also said they are vigilant of the ways that higher inflation can affect U.S. households and dampen consumer sentiment and want to get it under control. Benchmark 10-year note yields gained a basis point on the day to 1.63% and were up from 1.61% before the retail sales data was released. Breakeven rates on five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) rose to 3.24%, the highest since the notes were introduced in 1997, before falling back to 3.19%. Bonds had rallied overnight as concerns about a rise in COVID-19 cases increased demand for the safe-haven debt. “Risk sentiment is at risk of worsening into year-end as COVID-19 cases build. This means a flatter curve, all else being equal,” analysts at ING said in a note sent on Tuesday. Supply may offset some of that demand, however, with companies selling debt before market liquidity is reduced during the end-of-year holiday season. The Treasury on Wednesday will also sell $23 billion in new 20-year bonds, after seeing very weak demand for a $25 billion auction of 30-year bonds last week. Twenty-year bond yields are trading above those offered on 30-year bonds as the tenor suffers from relatively lower demand than other maturities. Twenty-year bond yields were last at 2.06% while 30-year yields were at 2.02%. The Fed is also beginning to reduce the size of its bond purchase program, which analysts say could push yields higher. November 16 Tuesday 3:01PM New York / 2001 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.045 0.0456 0.000 Six-month bills 0.065 0.0659 0.000 Two-year note 99-183/256 0.522 -0.002 Three-year note 99-162/256 0.8745 0.005 Five-year note 99-80/256 1.2686 0.012 Seven-year note 99-8/256 1.5223 0.016 10-year note 97-160/256 1.6335 0.012 20-year bond 95 2.0594 0.018 30-year bond 96-208/256 2.0172 0.010 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 24.75 1.00 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 19.75 0.50 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 10.25 1.00 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 5.00 0.75 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -19.75 0.00 spread (Editing by Mark Heinrich and Dan Grebler)
مشاركة :