UPDATE 1-CEE MARKETS-Forint rebounds after hawkish central bank messages

  • 11/16/2021
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(Updates with cenbank statement, press conference, forint reaction) By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint firmed on Tuesday, boosted by hawkish messages from the central bank after it raised its base rate by 30 basis points in line with forecasts but disappointing some investors. The forint rebounded after the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) pledged a "more extensive and longer lasting" policy tightening to curb rising inflation risks and anchor inflationary expectations. The currency was 0.4% up on the day and trading at 364.27 by 1504 GMT. The forint was helped by Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag"s press conference at which he announced new monetary policy tools and said that the NBH must be ready to set the interest rate on one-week deposits above the base rate, two FX traders said. "The bank will try to support the forint with a higher one-week deposit rate, but the big question is how much higher it will be," one trader said. The bank sets the interest rate on its one-week deposit facility on Thursday at its weekly tender. Uncertainty over by how much the bank would be willing to raise rates had worried markets over the past weeks, putting pressure on the forint. "The central bank will need to maintain large interest rate hikes at its upcoming meetings to prevent the forint from coming under further downward pressure," Liam Peach at Capital Economics wrote in a client note. Long-term government bond yields were not immediately moved by the rate hike, a fixed-income trader said. The forint has also been pressured by larger-than-expected rate hikes from the Polish and the Czech central banks earlier this month to counter inflation. However, analysts said that faltering growth and rising COVID-19 cases could make central banks in the region more cautious in coming months as data showed that CEE economies grew below expectations in the third quarter. Elsewhere, the Czech crown and the Romanian leu were little moved. The Polish zloty slid 0.25% to 4.6555 per euro. Rate setter Eugeniusz Gatnar said two more rate hikes of 50 bps each in December and January were needed. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1604 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previou Daily Change s bid close change in 2021 EURCZK Czech % EURHUF Hungary 0 0 EURPLN Polish EURRON Romanian EURHRK Croatian % EURRSD Serbian 0 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previou Daily Change s close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1383.20 1379.79 +0.25% +34.6 00 7% .BUX Budapest 51890.0 51789.8 +0.19% +23.2 1 0 3% .WIG20 Warsaw <.WIG20 2339.73 2335.04 +0.20% +17.9 > 3% .BETI Buchares 12845.0 12832.8 +0.09% +31.0 t 3 9 0% .SBITO Ljubljan <.SBITO 1227.85 1225.46 +0.20% +36.3 P a P> 0% .CRBEX Zagreb <.CRBEX 1994.07 2000.19 -0.31% +14.6 > 5% .BELEX Belgrade <.BELEX 813.65 815.81 -0.26% +8.69 15 15> % .SOFIX Sofia <.SOFIX 608.76 606.08 +0.44% +36.0 > 3% Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT= 2-year s CZ5YT= 5-year s CZ10YT s Poland PL2YT= 2-year s PL5YT= 5-year s PL10YT s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interb ank Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ******************************************** ****************** (Reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Amy Caren Daniel, Mark Heinrich and Nick Macfie)

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