Erdogan's pledge to fight interest rates sends lira spiralling

  • 11/17/2021
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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan accelerated a market meltdown on Wednesday when he pledged to continue his battle against interest rates "to the end", sending the lira to new depths and prompting opposition leaders to call for early elections. Erdogan said he would lift the interest rate burden from people and urged businesses to take advantage of aggressive monetary easing since September to invest, hire and export goods. The president"s interference in monetary policy has rattled the currency for years and battered the credibility of the central bank that has slashed its policy rate by 300 basis points since September, to 16%. The comments came a day before the bank is expected to cut again despite inflation soaring to near 20%. The lira tumbled as much as 3% on Wednesday and is by far the worst performer in emerging markets this year, due largely to what analysts call premature and risky easing by a central bank seen to have buckled to Erdogan"s demands. read more "We will lift this scourge of interest rates from people"s backs. We certainly cannot allow our people to be crushed by interest rates," he told lawmakers from his ruling conservative AK Party in parliament. "I cannot and will not stand on this path with those who defend interest rates," Erdogan said, repeating his unorthodox view that high rates cause inflation. The president describes himself as an enemy of interest rates, regularly speaks out ahead of policy decisions, and has overhauled the central bank"s leadership, firing three policymakers last month. In response to Erdogan"s comments, the lira touched new all-time lows of 10.6810 to the dollar and beyond 12 to the euro. The currency is down 30% against the dollar this year and some 64% over four years, eating into the earnings of Turks along with mostly double-digit inflation. "The central bank gave up on its (price-stability) function and ... only looks at the lira"s depreciation, the rise of the exchange rate as spectators," said Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Republican People"s Party (CHP). "You cannot govern the country," he said of Erdogan. "Let us go to elections at once. Let a new government be formed." Turks have cited economic mismanagement in opinion polls that show Erdogan"s support at multi-year lows. Elections are due no later than mid-2023. Adding to market unease over already thin official foreign currency reserves, Reuters reported citing sources that Turkey"s state energy company BOTAS is expected to turn to the central bank to meet its hard currency needs this winter. read more A rally in the dollar also weighed on the lira. Lira timeline Lira timeline MORE RATE CUTS? The central bank"s aggressive easing bucked expectations in recent months and left it virtually alone in a world of policy tightening. But it delivered stimulus long sought by Erdogan. The bank says price pressures are temporary, and it is expected to cut rates by another 100 basis points to 15% on Thursday, according to a Reuters poll. As he left parliament, Erdogan said the central bank would decide on rates independently when its monetary policy committee meets at 1100 GMT on Thursday. Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets, said cutting rates then would be too risky with the lira under pressure, and he predicted no policy change. "In order to stabilise the lira, the bank would have to reverse those 300-basis-point cuts since September but I think that the bar for it to make a U-turn is still set fairly high," he said. "Tomorrow"s meeting could prove the most important for (Central Bank Governor Sahap) Kavcioglu. Allowing the lira to fall at such a rapid pace will cause serious damage to the Turkish economy," Matys added. The lira"s depreciation stokes prices via imports and raises default risks for companies with foreign currency debt. Erdogan, who appointed Kavcioglu in March, questioned why business people did not take out loans and invest as rates were lowered. "Then they get together (and) talk about high interest rates," he said, referring to the main business group TUSIAD and others. "What type of people are you? If you are a businessman you are on the side of investment, so here you go: loans with low interest," Erdogan said, adding he expected them to raise investment, employment, exports and production. Turkey rates and inflation Turkey rates and inflation Editing by Jonathan Spicer, Alex Richardson and Giles Elgood

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