LIVE MARKETS Lira in crisis again, but not a global contagion just yet

  • 11/23/2021
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Nov 23 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com LIRA IN CRISIS AGAIN, BUT NOT A GLOBAL CONTAGION JUST YET (0917 EST/1417 GMT) After an 11-day losing streak for the lira, the Turkish currency is now firmly in crisis territory again. The biggest concerns on investors" minds now are where is the selloff going to end and what are the chances of the contagion spreading? Turkey"s lira plummeted nearly 15% on Tuesday, while its benchmark index (.XU100) rose 1.5% due to suddenly cheap valuations. Turkey"s banks (.XBANK) have held up well so far, up 19% this month. The broader stocks index is up 17% in November having scaled record highs. Given its limited trade and financial links with the rest of the world, alongside most emerging markets" improved external positions, economist Simon MacAdam at Capital Economics, writes that any global spillovers are unlikely. Turkish banks have $10 billion of foreign loans on their books, so domestic banking strains would not have a big impact on overseas lending. "The way this would get uglier for the rest of the world is if President Erdogan were to hold his nerve for long enough and for the lira to fall far enough to endanger Turkey’s banks," writes MacAdam. Nonetheless, some Spanish and other European banks like BBVA with Turkish exposure through its Garanti subsidiary may continue to underperform for the duration of the crisis as they did in 2018, adds the economist. (Bansari Mayur Kamdar) ***** DOW INDUSTRIALS: INSIDE THE LINES (0900 EST/1400 GMT) Over the past six months or so the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) has been trapped between two log-scale trend lines: On a weekly basis, the Dow closed above a more than 90-year resistance line in late March. With this action, the polarity of the line flipped from resistance to support. Since then, the Dow has bounced off of it a number of times, refusing to end a week back below it. It now resides as support around 34,000. On the upside, the blue-chip average faces a resistance line from early 2018. This line capped strength in mid-August and again earlier this month. It now resides around 36,700. Meanwhile, over the past six months or so, weekly momentum has been waning. The MACD hit a more than one-year low in mid-October, and despite the Dow"s early-November thrust to new highs, the momentum study managed just a tepid rise. The Dow is now down 2.6% from its 36,565.73 November 8 intraday high. But with the MACD remaining weak, risk remains for DJI to continue to oscillate down to once again test the support line. read more Ultimately, a weekly close outside the range defined by these two lines may signal potential for acceleration. Ending back below the support line can suggest a failed breakout above a very long-term trend line, with risk then for a major reversal. (Terence Gabriel) ***** FOR TUESDAY"S LIVE MARKETS" POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT - CLICK HERE: read more Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own

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