China's yuan firms on year-end demand, analysts expect weakness in 2022

  • 11/23/2021
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SHANGHAI, Nov 23 (Reuters) - China"s yuan inched higher on Tuesday, as continued seasonal corporate demand for the local unit outweighed broad dollar strength and a weaker-than-expected official yuan guidance rate. Prior to the market opening, the People"s Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate at 6.3929 per dollar, 23 pips firmer than the previous fix of 6.3952. The higher yuan comes even as the dollar was supported by U.S. President Joe Biden"s decision to reappoint Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for a second term, emboldening bets of higher U.S. interest rates. read more Although the PBOC lifted the official yuan midpoint rate higher, the official guidance was 69 pips softer than a Reuters estimate of 6.3860 per dollar. Some market analysts and traders said the weaker-than-expected fixings over the past week suggest authorities may have started to get slightly uncomfortable with the recent yuan rally. Ming Ming, head of fixed income research at CITIC Securities, said the yuan was likely to stay strong and resilient in the short-term on corporate demand. Chinese companies traditionally have greater demand for the yuan for various payments in the last two months of the year. Indeed, traders said they kept receiving queries from their corporate clients to convert their dollar receipts into the yuan, and that this could persist until the end of 2021. Market sentiment was also underpinned by a Reuters report that some Chinese banks had been told by financial regulators to issue more loans to property firms for project development, in efforts to marginally ease liquidity strains across the industry. read more In the spot market, the onshore yuan opened at 6.3852 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.3851 at midday, 9 pips firmer than the previous late session close. By midday, the broad dollar index rose to 96.529 from the previous close of 96.467, when the offshore yuan was trading at 6.3864 per dollar. But market analysts expected some downard pressure over the longer term. "In the long run, higher expectations for other economies to gradually raise interest rates next year and the expected falls in China"s export growth may put the yuan under pressure," Ming said. Zhang Yu, chief analyst at Huachuang Securities, said the long stretch of yuan strength "may be drawing to an end", with monetary policy and economic growth in China and the United States set to diverge in 2022. While the Fed is expected to hike interest rates late next year, markets believe the Chinese central bank still has an easing bias in its policy stance to prop up the economy. The yuan market at 0401 GMT: ONSHORE SPOT: Item Current Previous Change PBOC midpoint 6.3929 6.3952 0.04% Spot yuan 6.3851 6.386 0.01% Divergence from midpoint* -0.12% Spot change YTD 2.24% Spot change since 2005 revaluation 29.62% Key indexes: Item Current Previous Change Thomson Reuters/HKEX CNH index 102.13 101.85 0.3 Dollar index 96.529 96.467 0.1 *Divergence of the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number indicates that spot yuan is trading stronger than the midpoint. The People"s Bank of China (PBOC) allows the exchange rate to rise or fall 2% from official midpoint rate it sets each morning. OFFSHORE CNH MARKET Instrument Current Difference from onshore Offshore spot yuan * 6.3864 -0.02% Offshore non-deliverable forwards ** 6.5597 -2.54% *Premium for offshore spot over onshore **Figure reflects difference from PBOC"s official midpoint, since non-deliverable forwards are settled against the midpoint. . Reporting by Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa

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