INSTANT VIEW U.S. to release emergency oil reserves to cool prices

  • 11/23/2021
  • 00:00
  • 6
  • 0
  • 0
news-picture

NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The White House said on Tuesday it would make 50 million barrels of oil available from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves as part of a coordinated effort with other major economies to help cool oil prices. read more MARKET REACTION Brent crude futures rose $2.29, or 2.9%, to $81.99 a barrel by 11:37 a.m. EST (1637 GMT), after news of the releases came out. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.68, or 2.2%, to $78.43 a barrel. Brent and WTI fell last week by the most since the week ending Aug. 20. Both are rising this week. COMMENTS: ANDREW LIPOW, PRESIDENT AT LIPOW OIL ASSOCIATES: "The market is not impressed with the Biden Administration"s announcement that it will release 50 million barrels of crude oil because the majority of the release is actually a loan to the market and the volume that is going to be sold was already approved by Congress as part of the deficit reduction legislation." AMRITA SEN, ENERGY ASPECTS CHIEF OIL ANALYST "A lot will depend on how much of this is new oil versus repackaged oil that was being released as SPR anyways. Moreover a lot of this oil will need to be refilled later in 2022." "At the same time, this may lead OPEC+ to pause their January production increases, netting off a lot of the SPR release." CARSTEN FRITSCH, COMMERZBANK ANALYST "Some delegates said that OPEC+ might rethink its strategy to increase output by another 400,000 bpd at next week"s meeting. To put things into perspective, 50 million barrels is equivalent to a production hike by 1.6 million bpd for one month or by 1 million bpd for seven weeks. This is quite significant." GIOVANNI STAUNOVO, UBS ANALYST "SPR releases are a tool used to cover temporary production disruptions and are not useful to fix imbalances caused by lack of investment and still rising demand." "The amount being so far mentioned from other countries joining the U.S. looks more symbolic." He said in the United States, the figure of 50 million barrels was above market expectations, but the effective volume was only 32 million as 18 million had been already planned to be sold next year. "Big headline number but details provide a less strong narrative." HENNING GLOYSTEIN, EURASIA GROUP "The developments point to a period of heightened political tensions between the world’s biggest consumers and OPEC+, which implies increased oil price volatility." CRAIG ERLAM, ANALYST AT OANDA: "The move is more than symbolic, but it"s not a game changer as far as the market outlook is concerned." "What"s having have a greater impact arguably on suppressing the oil prices is the COVID situation in Europe which will ultimately affect demand." JOHN KILDUFF, PARTNER AT AGAIN CAPITAL LLC: "I know people are parsing the volumes. This is a decent amount of crude oil to bridge the gap, and it sends a signal to OPEC+ that the consuming nations are not going to get pushed around any more by them." "OPEC+ has been stingy with their output for months now. Supplies have tightened up and they"ve achieved their objective." "The last thing the global economy needs right now is high oil prices." EVERCORE ISI: "While our balances (and consensus) continue to point towards loosening in 1H22, policy makers are attempting to build an inventory cushion, reducing product pricing pressure, and insuring against an externality (weather, geopolitics) event that could spike price while the market awaits rebalancing in 2022." "While jawboning can have implications for price (and open interest) in the near-term, the fundamental picture here remains constructive with many of the same drivers that have contributed to tightening balances (measured supply adds from OPEC+ and a muted response from short-cycle supply sources, latent demand upswing lead by gasoline and naphtha). We maintain our 2022 forecast of $72/bbl Brent while suggesting falling OPEC spare capacity into 2022 should remain supportive for deferred price." ROB THUMMEL, PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT TORTOISE "The president of the United States talking about lowering oil prices had a bigger impact than the actual release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. U.S. oil prices have declined by 10% almost $9 per barrel since the White House began discussing its options." JIM RITTERBUSCH, PRESIDENT AT RITTERBUSCH AND ASSOCIATES "Although the indicated 50 million barrel U.S. release is a bit larger than prior expectations, the timing and duration of a release could prove key as far as near-term price response is concerned. An additional unexpected development has been comments out of OPEC suggesting a possible reduction in planned output increases to negate a portion of the released SPR supply." "At the end of the day, we are not viewing the SPR factor as capable of precluding an eventual run into fresh price highs, possibly by year"s end." MARC ROWELL, SENIOR ENERGY BROKER AT BRITANNIA GLOBAL MARKETS: "The market kind of heard we"d be looking at 20 million barrels hitting the market on the SPR.... We then saw 50 million, which was the dip." Rowell said the small print gave more details: "Eighteen million hitting the market, with 32 million going into the exchange, so we moved higher." CAROLINE BAIN, CHIEF COMMODITIES ECONOMIST AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS LTD: "First thoughts on the SPR release are that it"s not large enough to bring down prices in a meaningful way and may even backfire if it prompts OPEC+ to slow the pace at which it is raising output. As such, it seems quite symbolic and politically motivated. It also seems a bit impatient. The consensus (and us included) think that the oil market will move into a surplus in Q1 if OPEC+ continues to restore output, which would naturally bring down oil prices." MICHAEL TRAN, MANAGING DIRECTOR AT RBC CAPITAL MARKETS: "The 4 SPR facilities are 2 in Texas, 2 in Louisiana. So, you are effectively releasing oil into markets - into the Gulf Coast - that are not relatively tight. We see the Gulf Coast as having relatively ample supply. "So, the SPR action is more symbolic and not meaningful from an oil balance view." PAVEL MOLCHANOV, ANALYST AT RAYMOND JAMES: "Six major economies — every one of which is committed, at least in a declarative sense, to achieving net zero CO2 emissions — are releasing crude oil from strategic stockpiles with the explicit intent of lowering fuel prices." "By definition, high fuel prices are negative for fuel demand but a boost for energy transition… and yet, the politics of appeasing consumers supersedes the officially declared commitment to energy transition." BJORNAR TONHAUGEN, HEAD OF OIL MARKETS AT RYSTAD ENERGY: "For drivers wondering if gasoline prices will get lower as a result of the SPR release in the US, the reality is that this may not happen at all, or only with a significant lag time." "Firstly, the stock release, especially by the US and possibly China, will be in crude barrels. For this to impact gasoline supplies, it must result in higher gasoline production from refineries which could only happen with a lag and in a case that margins improve while refiners expect gasoline demand to develop positively in the near term." CHRISTIAN REUTER, SECTOR STRATEGY AT NORDDEUTSCHE LANDESBANK GIROZENTRALE: "(OPEC) has been very cautious this year, very focused on rebalancing the market and getting prices higher. They were pretty unimpressed by any threat to lose market share to their shale competitors. Of course, the real next "test" of this strategy will be next year when demand has fully recovered to pre-crisis levels and for that reason growth rates will normalize." "Apart from this, I see little reason that OPEC"s focus on price is going to change. And if this is the case, the SPR release is only turning this "strategic" stock into a "commercial" one. The consequence would be that OPEC will curb production until the new total commercial stocks have been driven down to a level it is satisfied with. So, I would not be too surprised if the OPEC curbs its production in one way or another at its next meeting." FRANK MACCHIAROLA, SVP OF POLICY, ECONOMICS AND REGULATORY AFFAIRS AT THE AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE: "Congress gave the President and the Secretary of Energy broad authority to manage the SPR and it"s the administration"s responsibility to exercise that authority as they see fit. We believe that any impact resulting from an SPR release is likely to be short-lived unless it is paired with policy measures that encourage the production of American energy resources." Reporting by Ron Bousso, Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, Shadia Nasralla, Noah Browning, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Stephanie Kelly, Scott DiSavino, Arathy Nair, Ahmad Ghaddar, Jessica Resnick-Ault; Editing by Nick Zieminski, Bernadette Baum and Emelia Sithole-Matarise

مشاركة :