Rouble drop to drive 2021 inflation above forecast, economy minister says

  • 11/24/2021
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MOSCOW, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The recent drop in the Russian rouble will spur consumer prices and push 2021 inflation above the previous forecast of 7.4%, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said on Wednesday. The rouble has lost around 8% of its value against the dollar in four weeks, slipping from a multi-month peak of 69.21 hit in late October to 75 due to selling pressure related to Western concerns over possible Russian military intervention in Ukraine. read more "All this nervousness will remain in place in coming weeks. The exchange rate (of the rouble) will be weaker and we will immediately see it in the acceleration of non-food inflation," Reshetnikov said at a media briefing. Consumer inflation eased to 8.05% as of Nov. 22 from 8.10% a week earlier, when it was heading towards its highest level since early 2016 despite a series of rate hikes by the central bank, Economy Ministry data showed on Wednesday. "Of course, we all understand that the 7.4% assessment will be exceeded," Reshetnikov said, referring to his ministry"s year-end inflation forecast. The central bank sees year-end inflation at 7.4%-7.9%, well above the 4% target, and is widely expected to raise the cost of borrowing again at its next board meeting on Dec. 17 to try to rein in stubbornly rising consumer prices. Higher rates are designed to drive inflation lower by making lending more expensive and by increasing the appeal of depositing money at banks over spending. Higher rates would support the rouble but will likely create headwinds for the Russian economy, which has already recovered to pre-pandemic levels but may lack the momentum to keep on growing in the coming years, especially if geopolitical woes persist. Reporting by Darya Korsunskaya; Writing by Andrey Ostroukh; Editing by Alison Williams and Hugh Lawson

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