LIVE MARKETS BofA sets 4,600 target for S&P 500, draws parallel to 2000

  • 11/24/2021
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Nov 24 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com BOFA SETS 4,600 TARGET FOR S&P 500, DRAWS PARALLEL TO 2000 (0911 EST/1411 GMT) BofA Global Research set a 4,600 target for the S&P 500 at year-end 2022 and compared this year"s market exuberance shown in retail trading mania and frenzied IPO activity to the market activity in 2000 in its U.S. equity outlook note. "There are too many similarities between today and 1999/2000 to ignore," wrote a group of strategists led by Savita Subramanian, further noting that one out of four of the IPOs of 1999 are today"s blue chips. The PT implies around 2% downside to S&P 500"s (.SPX) last closing price of 4,690.70 as strategists said rising wage growth is one of the biggest headwinds for companies heading into the new year. They add that the "TINA" (there is no alternative) argument for equities would be less compelling if cash yields rival the current S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.3%, and if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to 2% by 2022-end, as BofA rates strategists have predicted. Strategists prefer to stick with small caps and expect the group to outperform large caps at least in H1 2022. Among S&P sectors, BofA is overweight energy (.SPNY) and financials (.SPSY) that offer inflation-protected yield as well as healthcare (.SPXHC), and underweight communication services (.SPLRCL.), consumer staples (.SPLRCS) and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD). Here"s a look at some of the top Wall Street analysts" outlook for U.S. stocks in 2022. read more (Medha Singh) ***** NASDAQ COMPOSITE: CAN"T CATCH ITS "BREADTH" (0900 EST/1400 GMT) The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) is only down around 1.8% from its Nov. 19 record-high close. That said, measures of internal strength continue to show broad, and intensifying, weakness. read more For example, the Nasdaq daily advance/decline (A/D) line topped on Feb. 9 of this year, before ultimately collapsing to a 9-month low in mid-August: Despite, IXIC new highs since then, including just late last week, this closely watched breadth measure remains well shy of its 2021 highs. Earlier this month, it failed to reclaim its 200-day moving average. So far this year, there have been 39 negative breadth days. That is, the Composite closed higher, but the A/D line fell that day. Of note, around 15% of those days have occurred in just the past 30 days or so, suggesting recent internal tension. Also, of those 39 negative breadth days, 16 of them occurred with the composite registering a record close. Three of them have occurred in November, with the last such day Nov. 19, or what is now the Composite"s 16,057.44 record close. Just looking back to early 2020, periods of A/D-line divergence vs the Composite, as well as nearby clusters of Nasdaq record-high closes/negative breadth days, did precede varying degrees of IXIC instability. Additionally, the A/D line has now fallen seven-straight days and is threatening its August trough. A break below this level will put it at a more than one-year low. Therefore, unless the Nasdaq can quickly catch its "breadth," risk remains for a much deeper decline from the recent peak. read more (Terence Gabriel) ***** FOR WEDNESDAY"S LIVE MARKETS" POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT - CLICK HERE: read more Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own

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