Turkish inflation seen to climb to 3-yr high in November

  • 11/26/2021
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ISTANBUL, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Turkey"s annual inflation rate is expected to have climbed to its highest level in three years in November, according to a Reuters poll, after the lira plunged to historic lows. The median forecast of 15 economists in the Reuters poll came in at 20.7% for last month - which would be the highest since November of 2018 - with forecasts ranging from 19.3% to 21.06%.The monthly rate was seen at 3%, according to the median, with forecasts ranging from 1.8% to 3.3%. Overall inflation is being pushed higher by a rise in prices of processed food like bread, rent and fuel as well as the lira depreciation to record lows as the central bank continues its easing cycle despite rising inflation expectations. The bank"s one-week repo rate now stands at 15%, down from 19% before September"s initial cut. Before a partial rebound, the lira hit a record low of 13.45 on Tuesday, tumbling to a series of historic lows as President Tayyip Erdogan defended the monetary easing. read more The central bank, under pressure for monetary stimulus from Erdogan, has said the price pressure is temporary and inflation would follow a volatile course in the short term. In October, inflation jumped by 19.89% on an annual basis, and by 2.39% on a monthly basis. read more Turkish inflation has been in double digits and well above emerging market peers for most of the last four years, eating into Turks" earnings and undermining support for Erdogan. Responding to a Reuters question on when inflation will peak Erol Gurcan, an economist at Yatirim Finansman, said it could be in the first half of next year. "Year-on-year CPI could reach a peak level in 1H22 (maybe in May) at 27%, but we should note that risks are upward and the peak level could be over 30%," Gurcan said. Year-end inflation forecasts of all of the economists participating in the poll were above the central bank"s recently raised forecast of 18.4%. The poll showed the median of year-end inflation forecasts was 22%, with estimates from 20% to 24.7%. The Turkish Statistical Institute will announce November inflation at 0700 GMT on Dec. 3.

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