LIVE MARKETS Capital markets and a strong year-end for banks

  • 12/1/2021
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Dec 1 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com CAPITAL MARKETS AND A STRONG YEAR-END FOR BANKS (1040 EST/1540 GMT) With capital market activity accelerating, Credit Suisse bank analyst Susan Katzke is anticipating a stronger than anticipated finish to the year for banks. Despite month-end price declines Katzke cited supportive asset prices for equities in particular as well as sequentially higher trading volumes in both equities and fixed income with volatility increasing and an improved investment banking revenue generation pace. But Katzke noted a moderation in investor risk appetite and said macro confidence, market dynamics and liquidity levels as well as investor conviction "will be critical to both the quarterly progression and the longer term sustainability of capital markets revenue growth." Still the analyst laid out some promising investment banking numbers for the Q4 run rate so far vs Q4 2019 and observed that "capital markets activity — both investment banking and trading — continues to run well above the 4Q19 levels." Total investment banking fees for Q4 2021 are running 52% higher than Q4 2019, and 15% higher than Q4 2020 although they are 4% lower than Q3 2021 so far. Included in these numbers is a whopping 109% increase in equity underwriting and a 202% increase in IPO fees, according to Katzke who cites Dealogic and Credit Suisse estimates. While bank stocks seemed to be kicking off December in a good mood with the S&P bank index (.SPXBK) last more than 2% they have been pretty volatile recently. On Tuesday the index closed down 2.3%, and at one point was as much as 8.3% below its Oct 25 intraday record high. While Wednesday"s gain so far was on track to be its biggest since Sept 23. Friday"s decline of 3.9% was its deepest one-day drop since June 17. On Wednesday the biggest percentage gainer in the index was Fifth Third (FITB.O), up 3.6% followed by SVB Financial (SIVB.O), up 3.5%. (Sinéad Carew) ***** RETAIL TRADING: TOP FRENCH TRADED STOCKS (0949 ET/1449 GMT) The French regulator of financial markets (AMF) has just published quite a lot of data on the retail boom the country experienced since the pandemic rocked financial markets in early 2020. Main finding is that the trading appetite remains intact and comparable to what it was in March 2020. Other findings include the fact that so called "neo-brokers" have a younger client base inclined to trade complex instruments and more volatile stocks. A particularly interesting table is this one showing which stocks (for which France"s AMF is the competent authority) are the most traded: As you can see, the usual blue chips suspects, like luxury giant LVMH or plane maker Airbus, are well represented but clients of neo-brokers are more inclined to trade smaller and more volatile stocks like French vaccine company Valneva. Traditional banks are the likes of BNP Paribas or SocGen, online banks comprise Saxo Bank and IG Markets while neo-brokers count firms such as Activtrades and eToro in their ranks. The AMF said its survey covers 218 million transactions executed between Q3 2018 and Q3 2021 by French and foreign retail investors on financial instruments for which it is the competent authority. (Julien Ponthus) ***** FOLLOW THE BOUNCING BALL (0832 ET/1332 GMT) U.S. equity index futures are pointing to a higher open after a sharp sell-off for the second time in four sessions, as a drop of nearly 2% in the S&P 500 (.SPX) on Tuesday left the benchmark index at its lowest closing level since Oct 27. Investors who were already jittery from concerns about the new COVID-19 variant Omicron that fueled Friday"s sharp pullback were further unnerved by comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that indicated the central bank may tighten monetary policy faster than anticipated. read more Monday"s bounceback was seen as somewhat tepid by analysts, who will look for a stronger follow-through for today"s bounce. Futures slightly added to gains following the release of the ADP National Employment Report, which showed private payrolls increased by 534,000 jobs last month, above the 525,000 expectation. The data comes ahead of Friday"s key payrolls report. Data expected shortly after the opening bell includes the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November as well as October Construction Spending. The Fed"s Beige Book of economic conditions is expected later in the day. Below is your premarket snapshot: (Chuck Mikolajczak) ***** FOR WEDNESDAY"S LIVE MARKETS" POSTS PRIOR TO 0830 EST/1330 GMT - CLICK HERE:

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