U.S. natural gas futures shed over 11% on Monday to the lowest in more than 4-1/2 months, as forecasts for mild December temperatures soured the demand outlook. Front-month gas futures dropped 47.5 cents, or 11.5%, to settle at $3.657 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since July 15. "We"re seeing a lot warmer than normal weather in the forecast here, and it looks like it might be sticking around towards the third week in December, which is not sending any bullish signals to the traders," Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis said. Since Nov. 26, the front month has dropped over 30% in six sessions and has lost about $1.8 per mmBtu, in stark contrast to the seven-year high of nearly $6.5 per mmBtu hit two months ago. A lot of risk premium relating to a supply shortfall has been taken out of the market, DiDona added. read more Global gas prices have hit record highs in recent months as utilities around the world scrambled for LNG cargoes to replenish low stocks in Europe and meet surging demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. Tracking the global rally, U.S. futures jumped to a 12-year high in early October but have since pulled back because the United States has plenty of gas in storage and ample production for winter. "Some lower price levels would appear to lie ahead that could carry January futures to the $3.40-3.50 zone as a minimum if the (weather) forecasts stay mild this week." advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 96.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, down slightly from a monthly record of 96.5 bcfd in November. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 112.1 bcfd last week to 115.4 bcfd this week, but estimated a drop to 112.6 bcfd next week. Week ended Dec 3 (Forecast) Week ended Nov 26 (Actual) Year ago Dec 3 Five-year average Dec 3 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -49 -59 -78 -55 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,515 3,564 3,861 3,595 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -2.2% -2.4% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2020 Five Year Average (2016-2020) Henry Hub 3.83 4.22 2.58 2.13 2.66 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 29.29 30.31 5.82 3.24 5.19 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 34.19 35.32 9.46 4.22 6.49 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 351 339 381 395 391 U.S. GFS CDDs 7 9 2 5 5 U.S. GFS TDDs 358 348 383 400 396 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Last Year Five-Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 97.2 96.6 96.8 91.2 84.7 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.2 8.9 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 Total U.S. Supply 105.9 105.4 105.7 100.6 93.9 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 3.4 3.8 3.7 2.8 3.0 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.7 4.6 U.S. LNG Exports 11.8 12.3 12.2 11.4 5.0 U.S. Commercial 13.1 14.0 13.5 14.1 15.0 U.S. Residential 20.5 22.3 22.6 22.7 25.4 U.S. Power Plant 26.6 26.2 24.3 28.2 25.8 U.S. Industrial 23.6 23.8 23.5 24.5 24.6 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 91.2 93.7 91.2 96.9 98.1 Total U.S. Demand 112.1 115.4 112.6 116.8 110.7 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Dec 10 Week ended Dec 3 Week ended Nov 26 Week ended Nov 19 Week ended Nov 12 Wind 10 11 13 14 14 Solar 2 2 2 2 2 Hydro 7 6 6 6 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 1 1 1 1 1 Natural Gas 36 37 34 35 35 Coal 19 19 20 19 19 Nuclear 23 22 22 21 21 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 3.79 4.08 Transco Z6 New York 3.57 4.00 PG&E Citygate 4.85 4.60 Dominion South 3.32 3.62 Chicago Citygate 3.86 3.89 Algonquin Citygate 4.81 7.00 SoCal Citygate 5.15 4.94 Waha Hub 3.50 3.58 AECO 3.47 3.36 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 65.50 62.50 PJM West 35.75 40.00 Ercot North 39.33 37.00 Mid C 60.38 37.00 Palo Verde 29.50 33.25 SP-15 38.25