Australia will not need coal-fired power by 2043, market operator predicts

  • 12/9/2021
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MELBOURNE, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Australia can phase out coal-fired power by 2043 even as electricity demand soars, the energy market operator said on Friday in a draft plan for electricity investments that will be needed to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The base case for the Australian Energy Market Operator"s (AEMO) plan sees a rapid transformation of the National Electricity Market (NEM) with major investment in renewable generation, energy storage, back-up generation and transmission as coal plants are retired.In this scenario, the NEM will operate without coal generation by 2043," AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said in a statement. "This requires a substantial increase in battery and pumped-hydro storage, hydrogen or gas-fired generation for peak demand, all complemented by a market that incentivises energy users to adjust demand based on system conditions," he said.The plan would require A$12 billion ($8.6 billion) in network investments, AEMO said in the plan. The market operator expects electricity consumption from the grid will nearly double to 330 terawatt hours (TWh) as transport, heating, cooking and some industrial processes are electrified over the next three decades. It forecasts renewable generation capacity will grow to 140 gigawatts (GW) from the current 15 GW, more than doubling every decade to 2050. Separately, rooftop solar is expected to jump to 70 GW from 15 GW over the same period, AEMO said. It sees coal-fired capacity withdrawing from the market two to three times faster than expected, anticipating 14 GW out of the 23 GW of coal-fired capacity in the market to exit by 2030, compared with the 5.4 GW that plant owners currently plan to retire by then. "Their decisions remain necessarily uncertain, as they grapple with operating dynamics in the face of cheap renewable generation, their own competitive strategies, plant conditions, regulatory and remediation costs and the wishes of local communities," AEMO said in its draft plan. ($1 = 1.3935 Australian dollars)

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