Turkey's current account surplus seen at $2.4 bln in October

  • 12/13/2021
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Turkey"s current account is expected to record a surplus of $2.4 billion in October, its third consecutive positive month, according to a Reuters poll, boosted by strong exports and tourism. Turkey"s import-reliant economy, worth $717 billion in 2020, has been prone to big trade deficits and a boom-bust growth cycle that was exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic. The current account recorded a deficit of $36.72 billion in 2020, due mostly to a sharp increase in the trade deficit and plunging tourism revenues due to the pandemic fallout. The median estimate in a Reuters poll of 11 economists showed a surplus of $2.4 billion in October, with estimates ranging between a surplus of $1.5 billion and $3.2 billion. The poll also showed full-year deficit predictions have narrowed. The median estimate of 10 economists was a deficit of $14.75 billion, in a range of $10.5 billion to $18.5 billion. Last month"s poll put the deficit at $16.5 billion. Several Turkish officials have said the current account deficit was Turkey"s main problem, and narrowing the shortfall will be done through lower interest rates and supporting exports. A major component of the current account, the trade deficit fell 40.1% year-on-year in October to $1.44 billion, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Some 3.5 million foreign visitors arrived in Turkey in October, nearly doubling from last year, official data showed. The uptick in tourism revenue and the narrower trade deficit are expected to trim the deficit in 2021 as a whole compared to last year. The central bank is scheduled to announce the October current account data at 0700 GMT on Dec. 13. Writing by Ezgi Erkoyun Editing by Daren Butler Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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