NEW YORK, Dec 15 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The windfall coming to Wall Street bankers is the worst-kept secret of 2021. The bonus pools at JPMorgan (JPM.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and the rest have swelled read more , which means bankers can take home more without shareholders settling for less. Just like any market that has been artificially stimulated, it’s the return to normal that poses the challenge. JPMorgan and Goldman are both planning to raise bonuses by upwards of 40% for investment bankers who work on deals, initial public offerings and such. The increase is partly arithmetic. In an industry where a big chunk of pay is performance-linked, bonuses rise when revenue does, and markets have been buoyant read more . Goldman’s compensation expense in the first nine months of the year rose 34% as its top line expanded 31%. But banks are also reversing some of the restraint they showed in 2020. Last year, Goldman’s pay as a share of revenue fell to 30%, from 34% the year before. Compensation increased, but at a slower pace than the top line. JPMorgan’s investment banking and trading division paid out 24%, compared with 28% for each of the three preceding years. So long as those ratios remain stable or fall, as they have done for years now, increasing pay doesn’t conflict with the rising profit that investors demand. That could change this year with so-called comp ratios set to rise again. For hints, bankers only need consider the lucky few at the top. Goldman boss David Solomon took a $10 million pay cut in January only to get a $30 million special incentive in October read more . JPMorgan just handed Daniel Pinto, a potential successor to Chief Executive Jamie Dimon, a $25 million stock award on top of the $24.5 million he was paid in 2020. Yet it may be tougher than usual to bring bonuses down again if markets lose their froth. Assuming a constant pay ratio, if revenue in 2022 fell back to 2019 levels then overall compensation would slump by almost 40% from this year at Solomon’s firm and by 25% at Dimon’s, Breakingviews calculates. That’s a potential problem because big banks no longer just compete against each other for talent: Cryptocurrency and financial technology firms are hiring aggressively. A shrinking Wall Street bonus pool in 2022 could be just what those brash new rivals need. Follow @johnsfoley on Twitter CONTEXT NEWS - JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs may raise their bonus pools for investment bankers by as much as 40% and 50% respectively in 2021, Reuters reported on Dec. 14, citing sources familiar with the banks’ initial discussions. - Record levels of deal-making and trading activities have driven profit at investment banks this year as economic stimulus measures helped propel stock markets globally to all-time highs. - JPMorgan’s compensation expense for the first nine months of the year was $10.7 billion for its investment banking and trading division, 11% higher than a year earlier. Goldman’s was $14.5 billion, 34% higher than the same period in 2020.