FX mixed as investors weigh monetary, fiscal policy outlook

  • 12/20/2021
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Dec 20 (Reuters) - Central European currencies were steady in thin trade on Monday, as expectations of tighter monetary policy in Poland and a lower budget deficit in Hungary offset investor concerns over the rising Omicron cases worldwide and the slump in Turkish lira. Hungarian Finance Minister Mihaly Varga said on Friday the country would cut its 2022 budget deficit target to 4.9% of GDP from 5.9% as fiscal policy will be less supportive next year. read more "Previously the market was afraid that fiscal policy was too generous in Hungary going into 2022 ... now they think that the finance ministry has realised it could be a big issue," said Peter Virovacz, senior economist at ING in Hungary. Meanwhile, Poland"s Energy Regulatory Office approved on Friday tariffs that mean customers of four energy companies will have to pay around 24% more for energy in 2022, prompting economists to revise their estimates for next year"s CPI path and raising expectations of more aggressive policy tightening from the central bank. read more At 1049 GMT, the Hungarian forint was 0.07% firmer against the euro at 367.22. The Polish zloty was 0.08% weaker and the Czech crown was kind of flat at 25.25 A Warsaw-based currency trader said the change in the zloty was mainly a result of low liquidity. "Stock markets are in the red, the Turkish lira is under pressure, the zloty is also a bit under pressure," said a second trader in Warsaw. Turkey"s lira weakened to a record low on Monday, putting pressure on other emerging market currencies, after President Tayyip Erdogan doubled down on his unorthodox low-rates policy by referring to Islamic usury doctrine. read more The Polish 10-year bond yield rose over 6 basis points to 3.237% while the Czech 10-year yield climbed over 3 basis points to 2.82%. "The prospect of rising prices will restrain potential yield declines, favoring the stabilization of bond prices in the world until the end of the year," PKO BP said in a note. CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1249 CET CURRENCIES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 Czech crown 25.2270 25.2500 +0.09% +3.97% Hungary forint 366.9500 367.2200 +0.07% -1.15% Polish zloty 4.6370 4.6335 -0.08% -1.68% Romanian leu 4.9485 4.9507 +0.04% -1.69% Croatian kuna 7.5160 7.5165 +0.01% +0.42% Serbian dinar 117.6000 117.5800 -0.02% -0.03% Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 Prague (.PX) 1384.46 1390.1100 -0.41% +34.79% Budapest (.BUX) 50277.08 50887.30 -1.20% +19.40% Warsaw (.WIG20) 2177.74 2194.56 -0.77% +9.77% Bucharest (.BETI) 12332.62 12478.10 -1.17% +25.77% Ljubljana (.SBITOP) 1235.60 1236.52 -0.07% +37.16% Zagreb (.CRBEX) 2030.28 2035.20 -0.24% +16.73% Belgrade (.BELEX15) 827.06 824.85 +0.27% +10.48% Sofia (.SOFIX) 626.10 619.55 +1.06% +39.90% Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech Republic spread 2-year 3.4890 0.0050 +421bps +2bps 5-year 3.1240 0.0520 +374bps +5bps 10-year 2.8200 0.0360 +319bps +4bps Poland 2-year 3.0090 0.1440 +373bps +16bps 5-year 3.4150 0.0980 +403bps +10bps 10-year 3.2370 0.0650 +361bps +7bps FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interbank Czech Rep 4.40 4.13 3.99 3.37 Hungary 5.06 5.16 5.14 3.94 Poland 3.41 3.63 3.62 2.35 Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices ************************************************************** Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw and Robert Muller in Prague; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips

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