Japan’s sales retail pick up pace; US holiday season buoyant for shopkeepers: Macro Snapshot

  • 12/27/2021
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Retail sales in Japan rose for the third consecutive month in November, in a favorable sign for businesses in the country. Sales were 1.2 percent higher in November — on a monthly basis. This was driven by higher expenditure on clothes and cars, which went up by 7.5 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively, according to data from the country’s Ministry of Economy and Trade. In yearly terms, retail sales increased by 1.9 percent in November, accelerating from the previous month’s 0.9 percent. Meanwhile in the US Expenditure on clothes, jewelry and electronics pushed US holiday sales up by 8.5 percent from a year ago, according to a report from Mastercard SpendingPulse. Both online and in-store sales grew as consumers looked for gifts earlier than usual. In addition, stores tried to introduce more promotions to stimulate the holiday shopping season despite supply chain issues, Bloomberg reported. The holiday season is defined as Nov. 1 to Dec. 24. Turkey’s business confidence The Real Sector Index in Turkey dropped by 2.3 points to 106.1 in December, the country’s central bank said. This was driven by a major decline in the general business situation sub-index, as it decreased to 77, down from 90.6 in the previous month. This comes against the backdrop of the country"s persistent move towards lower interest rates amidst high inflationary pressures. Moreover, the survey — conducted by Turkey"s central bank for manufacturing companies — showed that firms’ reporting of both current and future orders worsened. On the other hand, total employment and volume of output are expected to increase in the coming three months. China’s industrial profits Industrial profits for Chinese firms went up by an annual rate of 38 percent in the January-November period, data from the country’s official statistics agency showed. In particular, mining firms’ profits fueled this increase, surging by over 180 percent during the same period. However, profits rose by an annual rate of 9 percent in November, decelerating significantly from October"s 24.6 percent jump. This was attributed to tumbling prices of some raw materials, a faltering property market and weaker consumer demand. Germany’s falling surpluses Current account surpluses in Germany are starting to drop, causing major trade partners some relief. Europe’s top economy had the biggest current account surplus for four consecutive years through 2019. This made it the largest creditor in the world, prompting worldwide calls for their reduction, the Wall Street Journal reported. For instance, the US has long called that these large surpluses were partly inducing global economic imbalances. The IMF and the EU were also among those urging Germany to cut its surplus, but the German government said that there wasn’t much to do about it. Germany’s current account surplus — as a share of GDP — is set to fall to 5.5 percent next year, which is the lowest level since 2005. This is also less than the 8.6 percent peak recorded in 2015.

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