LIVE MARKETS U.S. stocks mixed, but value-tilt persists

  • 1/5/2022
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DJI, S&P 500 ~flat, Nasdaq falls Real estate weakest major S&P sector; energy leads gainers Euro STOXX 600 index ~flat Dollar down; bitcoin, gold, crude rise U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~1.66% Jan 5 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com U.S. STOCKS MIXED, BUT VALUE-TILT PERSISTS (0959 EST/1459 GMT) Wall Street"s main indexes are mixed early Wednesday ahead of minutes from the Federal Reserve"s December meeting, as a rise in U.S. Treasury yields continues to hit technology-heavy growth stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) and S&P 500 (.SPX) are near flat, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) is more forthrightly red. This, as the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to the 1.66% area, and the tilt toward value persists. The S&P 500 value (.IVX)/S&P 500 growth (.IGX) ratio is on track for its biggest weekly rise since early May. That said, the S&P 500 Banks index (.SPXBK) is now slightly negative, and chips (.SOX) are well off their early lows. The NYSE FANG+ index (.NYFANG) has ticked green. Here is where markets stand about 30 minutes into the trading day: earlytrade01052021 earlytrade01052021 (Terence Gabriel) ***** 2022 NASDAQ COMPOSITE: YEAR OF THE ROADRUNNER OR THE COYOTE? (0900 EST/1400 GMT) The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) accomplished a rare feat last year. That is, its entire 2021 trading range was above its upper yearly Bollinger Band (BB): IXIC01052021 IXIC01052021 Bollinger Bands (BB) are envelopes, or trading bands, plotted at a level of standard deviation above and below a simple moving average of price. Given that the bands are based on standard deviation, they adjust to swings in volatility. The bands can help answer the question of whether price is high or low on a relative basis. Using Refinitiv data, the IXIC has ended a year above its upper yearly BB - or more than two standard deviations above its 20-year moving average - ten times, or about 43% of the time. This includes a current nine-year streak from 2013 to 2021. However, besides the building streak, what was especially unique about last year is that the Composite"s 12,397.05 low was above its upper yearly BB, which ended the year at 12,274.516. This is the first time the IXIC has managed this in 23 years of data, which makes it just over 4% of the time. When looking at the greater histories of the Dow (.DJI) (107 years of data), and S&P 500 (.SPX) (75 years of data), these indexes" entire yearly ranges have only been above their upper yearly BB once (0.9% of the time), and twice (2.7% of the time), making it a rare event. The Composite may yet accomplish this feat again in 2022, but neither the Dow or SPX has ever managed do it two-straight years. It is just the start of 2022, and the market"s exact path is highly uncertain. However, given that the IXIC"s upper yearly BB currently resides at 14,173, or nearly 10% below Tuesday"s close, and that it will adjust for volatility, potential exists for some especially wild action throughout this year, whether it be a big upside run, a cliff dive, or both. (Terence Gabriel) ***** FOR WEDNESDAY"S LIVE MARKETS" POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT - CLICK HERE: read more Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own

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