LIVE MARKETS Rising U.S. yields: what's in it for Europe?

  • 1/5/2022
  • 00:00
  • 3
  • 0
  • 0
news-picture

STOXX 600 turns positive Autos march on higher EZ recovery stumbled in December U.S. futures mixed Jan 5 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com RISING U.S. YIELDS: WHAT"S IN IT FOR EUROPE? (1038 GMT) One of the main features of the first trading days of 2022 is that U.S. yields are clearly heading higher and investors are bracing for the Fed to hike interest rates this year. When and by how much is anyone"s guess but from the other side of the side of the pond, portfolio managers need to adjust their portfolios even if the European Central Bank is nowhere near raising interest rates. "European equities now have a stronger relationship with U.S. than European bond yields", Citi analysts argue while many strategists are already recommending a rotation to value. "In particular, US real yields are a key driver of equity valuations, especially amongst highly rated growth stocks", they add. What to expect? Well, Tech and Luxury are sectors which are likely to feel the heat. "Alternatively, higher yields could help traditional value trades such as UK equities and Pan-European Financials", they also believe. Here"s Citi"s table on what to expect when U.S. yields go up: citi citi Reprinted with permission of Citi Research. Not to be reproduced. (Julien Ponthus) ***** EUROPEAN AUTOS" UNSTOPPABLE RUN (0850 GMT) The pan European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) is flat as a wave of risk-off sentiment from Asia extended to Europe, but the auto sector continues to score juicy gains. In an otherwise gloomy morning, the auto index (.SXAP) surges around 1%, to an almost 7% jump this week, hitting its highest level since November and set for its best week in 11 months. "Autos are very cheap, but profitability is strong given excellent price/mix, even on lower volumes, and chip shortages should ease," say Barclays, which has a overweight on the sectors. Automakers Stellantis (STLA.MI) and BMW inched up on news that Stellantis" Chrysler brand is planning to shift to an all-electric lineup by 2028, while BMW achieved record sales in 2021. read more This is how the single auto stocks are performing this morning across Europe: Auto Auto (Joice Alves) ***** PARTY OVER BEFORE IT GETS STARTED (0803 GMT) The euphoria seen in world stock markets in the first two trading days of the year already appears to be fading. Asian stocks outside Japan are down 1%, U.S. stock futures point to a weak open and European futures are mixed. The culprit -- rising U.S. Treasury yields sparked by growing speculation that the Federal Reserve could start its rate hiking cycle as early as March. Money market futures price in a roughly 64% chance of a quarter percentage-point tightening by then, with investors fully pricing such a move by May. And yes, liquidity is thin and traders haven"t yet fully returned to their desks after the year-end break. But don"t underestimate the signals coming from the U.S. bond market - where interest rate sensitive short-dated bond yields are near their highest levels since early 2020. Benchmark 10-year bond yields and their inflation-adjusted counterparts are up 13 bps each this week , . And so minutes from the Fed"s December meeting, released at 1900 GMT, will be scrutinised for signs of policymakers" readiness to tighten policy. There are other reasons for a more cautious note to prevail in markets today. The first is concern that the fast-spreading Omicron could lead to worker shortages. The United States reported nearly 1 million new coronavirus infections on Monday, the highest daily tally of any country in the world and nearly double the previous U.S. peak set a week ago. read more China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) also remains in the spotlight. The debt-laden property developer will seek a six-month delay in the redemption and coupon payments of a 4.5 billion yuan ($157 million) bond in a meeting with bond holders this weekend. read more Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Wednesday: - Sony looks to electric cars for its next big hit read more - Gas prices surge in Europe over tight Russian supplies read more - Italy sale of new 30-year via bank syndicate could come as early as Wednesday - Final PMIs from India, Italy, France, Germany, Brazil and U.S. - France December consumer confidence, Italy preliminary December CPI, US December ADP employment change data out US bond yields on the rise US bond yields on the rise (Dhara Ranasinghe) ***** RISK-OFF TONE (0735 GMT) Futures are pointing to a flat to lower start of the day for European bourses mirroring the risk-off sentiment across Asian stocks, which fell as higher U.S. Treasury yields weighed on global tech firms. read more After the pan-European index STOXX 600 (.STOXX) touched record highs on Tuesday, DAX, Ibex and FTSE futures are edging lower, Eurostoxx 50 Futures is flat. In the calendar, EZ final PMI data and France consumer confidence and consumer price and inflation data for Italy. This evening, minutes from the Fed"s December meeting, due at 1900 GMT, could highlight U.S. policymakers" newfound sensitivity to inflation and their readiness to tighten policy. In terms of news, companies may find some comfort in British PM Boris Johnson"s words England could withstand a surge in COVID-19 infections without further restrictions as Britain reported another record daily high in cases. (Joice Alves) *****

مشاركة :