LIVE MARKETS It's getting real

  • 1/10/2022
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Jan 10 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com IT"S GETTING REAL (0807 GMT) As markets move to price a U.S. interest rate liftoff, possibly even from March, 10-year Treasury yields have risen a quarter point since the year started. Even more interestingly, "real", or inflation-adjusted U.S. yields are driving the moves with a 33 basis-point jump. Real yields, while at the highest since last June, will remain deeply negative for a while. But their rise poses challenges for assets that benefited from the there-is-no-alternative reasoning. The past week saw stocks wobble, bitcoin tumble 8% and Nasdaq tech, the quintessential low-rate play, fell 4.5%. Holders of longer-duration bonds are also likely nervous -- such assets saw big outflows in the past four weeks, Goldman Sachs notes. Meanwhile, inflation isn"t letting up; euro area prices rose 5% year-on-year in December and Wednesday"s U.S. CPI reading is expected at 7%-plus. The ECB has stayed resolutely dovish however -- board member Isabel Schnabel did say on the weekend the bank may need to act if energy price rises prove persistent. The euro started Monday 0.3% lower read more . Stocks are trying to claw their way back up -- U.S. and European equity futures are inching up even if Treasury yields, both real and nominal, are a touch higher. So what happens to stocks if real yields continue rising? There have been episodes a-plenty when equities rose alongside real yields, most recently in the March 2020-February 2021 period when a 1.5 percentage real yield increase was accompanied by a 50% global equities return. Noting this, Berenberg recently advised clients to stay put. The share of rate-sensitive tech however is now far higher than in the past which possibly changes the equation a bit. Finally, let"s not forget the worrying geopolitics and fast-spreading Omicron, both capable of adding to inflation and dampening economic growth. Oil prices are extending last week"s 5% gain and U.S.-Russia talks look set to start later in the day with few expectations. Real yields Real yields Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday: -German Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Paschal Donohoe, Eurogroup president hold press conference -NATO head Jens Stoltenberg meets with Ukrainian Foreign Minister - Kazakh president steps up purge of security agency read more -No concessions, no breakthroughs: Russia, U.S. cast pall on Ukraine talks read more -Evergrande onshore bondholders to decide on extension; fellow developer Shimao puts all projects on sale read more -UK manufacturers positive about 2022 read more (Sujata Rao) ***** EUROPE EYES CAUTIOUS GAINS (0724 GMT) European shares look set to open up slightly this morning as global markets cautiously await another U.S. inflation print later this week that could push the Federal Reserve further into hawkish territory as price pressures grow. Futures on the Euro STOXX 50, DAX, FTSE and IBEX were up between 0.3% and 0.6% following losses last week when concerns over rising inflation and COVID-19 infections dragged the region"s top equity benchmark to nearly two-week lows. Over in Asia, major share markets made cautious gains while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures added 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. On bond markets, 10-year Treasury yields edged back up towards two-year highs of 1.8% hit on Friday. U.S. inflation figures are due on Wednesday, with headline CPI seen climbing to a red-hot 7% year-on-year. (Danilo Masoni) *****

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