Major U.S. indexes tumble; small caps, banks, chips hit harder Financials weakest major S&P sector; energy sole gainer Euro STOXX 600 index slides ~0.8% Dollar, crude rise; gold ~flat; bitcoin dips U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~1.85% Jan 18 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com JANUARY ECONOMIC BAROMETERS SHOW OMICRON COLD FRONT MOVING IN (1046 EST/1546 GMT) Some of the first economic data of the New Year was released on Tuesday, both of which reflect ongoing supply constraints and the resulting inflation wave, but also the first look at the extent to which the Omicron COVID variant has dragged the party down. Factory activity in New York unexpectedly contracted this month according to the New York Federal Reserve. Its General Business Conditions index - better knows as the Empire State (USEMPM=ECI) - plunged to -0.7 from December"s reading of 31.9, missing the 25 print analysts expected by a mile. read more An Empire State number below zero indicates a contraction of activity from the previous month, and this month"s print marks the first negative reading since June 2020, just months after mandated shutdowns to contain the pandemic sent the economy into its steepest, most abrupt recession in history. While the employment and near-term outlook stayed in expansion territory, they lost momentum as the critical new orders component plunged to -5.0. The one encouraging sign was a pullback in prices paid, which dropped 3.5 points to a still-elevated 76.7. "This report has our attention, as it"s the weakest major regional survey for some time," writes Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "But it is not definitive, and might yet prove to be more noise than signal. Our guess is that other reports will confirm that Omicron has hit activity." The Philly Fed report due on Thursday, which economists see accelerating, gaining 4.6 points 20, should provide a broader picture of Atlantic region manufacturing. Empire State Empire State Meanwhile, folks in the homebuilding racket have grown less optimistic this month. The National Association of Home Builders" (NAHB) housing market index (USNAHB=ECI) unexpectedly shed one point in January to 83. Analysts expected the index to hold steady at 84. While housing demand still supports the sector, that support is showing cracks of late, as lack of supply and soaring prices of building materials, along with steadily rising interest rates, are combining to push home ownership beyond the grasp of many potential buyers, particularly at the lower end of the market. "While lean existing home inventory and solid buyer demand are supporting the need for new construction, the combination of ongoing increases for building materials, worsening skilled labor shortages and higher mortgage rates point to declines for housing affordability in 2022," writes Robert Dietz, NAHB"s senior economist. Still, as seen in the graphic below, homebuilder sentiment and NAHB"s gauge of potential buyer traffic remain comfortably above pre-COVID levels. NAHB NAHB Wall Street is deeply in red territory in morning trading, with tech (.SPLRCT) weighing heaviest. Financials (.SPSY) are running a close second, with Goldman Sachs (GS.N), in the wake of its quarterly profit miss read more , pulling the sector down. (Stephen Culp) ***** AMID YIELD RISE, U.S. STOCKS BATTERED (1005 EST/1505 GMT) U.S. stock indexes are under pressure early on Tuesday as technology stocks are slammed by rising Treasury yields, while Goldman Sachs led declines among big banks after missing profit expectations. Indeed, FANGs (.NYFANG) and chips (.SOX) are being hit especially hard, while energy is the only major S&P 500 (.SPX) sector in the green. And even though financials (.SPSY) are the weakest major SPX sector on the day, value (.IVX) is still on track for its biggest monthly percentage gain vs growth (.IGX) since February 2001. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), which is now down around 9% from its Nov. 19 record close, is threatening to end below its 200-day moving average, which now sits around 14,735, for the first time since April 21, 2020. However, with this, the tech-laden index is off its early low, and its daily RSI is hovering just above oversold territory. Here is where markets stand in early trade: earlytrade01182022B earlytrade01182022B (Terence Gabriel) ***** AS NASDAQ 100 FUTURES TUMBLE, ALL EYES ON YIELDS (0900 EST/1400 GMT) Futures tracking the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 index (.NDX) are slumping around 1.5% on Tuesday as traders return from a long holiday weekend to position for a more hawkish Federal Reserve ahead of a policy meeting next week. This, after the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield held support last week in the 1.7050%/1.6930% area. Indeed, the yield hit a low of 1.6940% on Thursday and has since vaulted to a high of 1.8550% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the rolling 10-day correlation between CME e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures and the 10-Year yield, hit -0.88 last week, or a near perfect negative correlation (-1). On Tuesday, the reading has moved up, but remains a robust -0.72. Of note, however, with its 1.8550% high, the 10-year yield neared a weekly Gann line on the charts, which now resides around 1.87%: US10YYGF01182022 US10YYGF01182022 A Gann fan is a series of lines drawn at specific angles from important highs and lows. The line in question capped the yield rise into late-March 2021, which then led to a significant decline. The yield has since backed away slightly. Thus, traders will be watching to see where the yield finishes on a weekly basis vs this Gann line. A reversal, which takes out 1.6930%, can suggest the potential for a greater fall in yield. And if the inverse correlation with the Nasdaq 100 futures holds up, it would likely coincide with a recovery in tech/growth shares. A weekly yield close above 1.87%, however, can suggest room for a much greater rise in yields based on the Gann chart. Additional lines are above 2.20%. In that event, with a still strong negative correlation, the Nasdaq 100 futures could be vulnerable to a much greater fall. (Terence Gabriel) ***** FOR TUESDAY"S LIVE MARKETS" POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT - CLICK HERE: read more