LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) is making a play for the premium aisle of consumer health. The maker of Lemsip drinks and Advil painkillers rejected Unilever’s (ULVR.L) 50 billion pound offer for its consumer unit. To keep investors on side with her alternative plan to spin off the division, Chief Executive Emma Walmsley has rolled out some punchy sales forecasts. For a CEO fending off activists including Elliott Management, rejecting Unilever’s offer looks bold. It values GSK’s consumer business at around 18.5 times this year’s EBITDA, forecast by analysts at 2.7 billion pounds. Peer Reckitt Benckiser (RKT.L), for example, is worth 15 times including debt. However, GSK’s division probably deserves a premium to its UK rival. Analysts reckon the unit which makes Tums tablets can deliver annual revenue growth of 4% over the medium term, according to Refinitiv forecasts. Reckitt is only expected to grow sales by 3% annually between 2022 and 2025, as per Refinitiv data. For a spinoff to match Unilever’s offer, however, Walmsley, and Pfizer (PFE.N), which owns 32% of GSK Consumer, would need to be able to show that the company can trade at a similar level to industry leader Procter & Gamble (PG.N), which is also valued including debt at 18.5 times this year’s EBITDA, according to Refinitiv data. That may be a stretch. After all, P&G is a $379 billion industry leader with a far broader range of products than GSK’s unit, and which has delivered average revenue growth of 6% over the last two years. True, Walmsley is promising that sales at GSK Consumer will increase between 4% and 6% annually in the medium term. But that looks optimistic: the unit’s average growth rate over the last five years has been a mediocre 3%. And rising inflation may force consumers to cut spending on branded products, like Panadol pills. Some investors are looking instead at Colgate-Palmolive (CL.N). The $70 billion toothpaste maker is closer in size and growth profile to GSK’s consumer unit. On its 17 times forward EBITDA to enterprise value multiple, GSK’s division would be worth 46 billion pounds, less than Unilever’s offer. But investors would have the chance of a gain if a higher bid emerged from Unilever or a U.S. rival like Procter & Gamble, or if Walmsley hits her targets. Hope may be enough for Walmsley to keep her shareholders on side.