US natgas futures rise over 4% on spike in European prices

  • 2/14/2022
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US Natural gas futures rose more than 4 percent today after a 10 percent spike in European prices NEW YORK: US Natural gas futures rose more than 4 percent today after a 10 percent spike in European gas prices on expectations that US liquefied natural gas, or LNG exports will remain near record highs as long as there is a possibility of Russia invading Ukraine and cutting gas supplies to the rest of Europe. US prices also gained support from forecasts of more US demand over the next two weeks than previously expected despite a milder than normal weather outlook for the rest of February, and as output continues to recover from cold-weather related reductions over the past month. Gas futures in Europe jumped 10 percent on Monday, putting prices about seven times above US futures. Front-month gas futures for March delivery rose 18.2 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $4.123 per million British thermal units or mmBtu, putting the contract on track for its highest close since Feb. 8. Gas futures traded around $27 per mmBtu in Europe and $25 in Asia. Since the start of the year, however, the US market has focused more on changes in US weather and domestic supply and demand, rather than what is happening around the world. So far in 2022, US gas followed European prices about a third of the time versus two-thirds during the fourth quarter of 2021. But, traders said, a 10 percent jump in European prices was hard to ignore, noting demand for US LNG will remain strong so long as global gas prices trade well above US futures as utilities around the world scramble for cargoes to meet surging demand in Asia and replenish low inventories in Europe. That is even more true now with heightened concerns Russia could invade Ukraine. If Russia invades, Europe and the United States would likely impose sanctions on Moscow, which could prompt Russia to cut gas supplies to Europe. Russia provides around 30-40 percent of Europe’s gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 bcfd in 2021.

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