Biden warns that Russia invasion “still very much a possibility” During a speech updating on the Russia-Ukraine situation, Joe Biden warned that an invasion from Russia is “very much a possibility,” but that a diplomatic resolution was still possible. Today, Biden warned that despite reports from Russia that some of its troops were returning to home bases, analysis from the US has not verified that and that Russian troops remain in a threatening position. “An invasion remains distinctly possible,” said Biden, again announcing that Americans in Ukraine should leave now “before it is too late to leave safely.” Biden also confirmed that the US has engaged in “non-stop diplomacy” to prevent a Russian invasion, saying “We should give diplomacy every chance to succeed.” Biden also, again, noted that NATO allies are united in opposition to an invasion and prepared to respond with consequences. “The West is united and galvanised,” said Biden, noting that Russia invading Ukraine would be a “self-inflicting wound.” “If Russia proceeds, we will rally the world to oppose its aggression,” said Biden, confirming that export controls and other actions not pursued during the 2014 Russia-Crimea invasion will take place if Ukraine is invaded. Biden also confirmed again that Nord Stream 2 will not happen if Russia invades Ukraine. In a joint statement, senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, minority leader Mitch McConnell and other senators from both parties said they wanted to send “a bipartisan message of solidarity and resolve to the people of Ukraine”. They write: Should Vladimir Putin further escalate his ongoing assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty, Russia must be made to pay a severe price. We are prepared to fully support the immediate imposition of strong, robust, and effective sanctions on Russia, as well as tough restrictions and controls on exports to Russia, and we will urge our allies and partners in Europe and around the world to join us. In the face of Russian escalation against Ukraine, we will continue to support robust security, economic, and humanitarian assistance for the people of Ukraine. The United States and our partners should also move quickly to ensure that the Government of Ukraine receives sustained emergency assistance to defend against an illegal Russian invasion. The statement comes as bipartisan negotiations over a sanctions package has stalled. Republicans have introduced their own package, which would impose immediate sanctions on Russian oligarchs and members of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, regardless of whether Russia invades Ukraine. The bill would also mandate sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invades, and authorize more security funding for Ukraine, and create a lend-lease program. Senate Foreign Relations chair Bob Menendez said the Republican bill amounted to “partisan posturing” and that the “latest proposal by Republicans is largely a reflection of what Democrats had already agreed to.” In his update today, Biden emphasized that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would affect Americans and European allies. “I will not pretend this will be painless,” he said, noting that economic sanctions against Russia could cause oil prices to rise even as the US copes with broader inflation. but the president said that the US and European allies agreed that harsh sanctions against Russia would be the most effective way to deter Putin. He proposed to halt Nord Stream 2, a Russian natural gas pipeline to Europe if Russia further invades. “When it comes to Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would bring natural gas from Russia to Germany if Russia further invades Ukraine, it will not happen,” he said Cyberattacks on Ukraine reported today likely affected Ukraine’s military, energy, and other key systems according to recently declassified US intelligence, reports the Washington Post. Russian government hackers have likely broadly penetrated Ukrainian military, energy and other critical computer networks to collect intelligence and position themselves potentially to disrupt those systems should Russia launch a military assault on Ukraine, according to newly declassified U.S. intelligence. Moscow could seek to disrupt Ukrainian entities that provide critical services such as electricity, transportation, finance and telecommunications — either to support military operations or to sow panic in an attempt to destabilize the country, according to a senior administration official who described the intelligence. The U.S. government has determined only that Russia could undertake disruptive cyber-activity, not that it will, said the official, who like several others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. “We don’t know that they have intention to do so,” the official said. “But we have been working with Ukraine to strengthen their cyberdefenses.” A Kremlin spokesman did not respond to a request for comment. Read full article here (paywall). During today’s White House press briefing, the White House said that it has nothing on attribution concerning cyberattacks in Ukraine. “I don’t have anything on attribution at this time,” said US press secretary Jen Psaki during today’s press briefing. “What I can say is that we have been in touch with the Ukrainians, our allies and partners, working with them to deter and respond to malicious cyber activity,” said Psaki. Reactions to Biden’s speech on the Russia-Ukraine situation have started to come in as experts share their thoughts on Biden’s remarks. Here’s Dr. Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International studies on Biden’s speech, with Lewis tweeting: That speech by Biden was the one POTUS gives if he still expects an invasion. I was quite struck by how much expectation setting Biden did. Ben Rhodes, Former Deputy National Security Advisor of the United States, also shared his thoughts on Twitter, writing: Biden did not seem optimistic about the latest Russian overtures - remained focused on warning of invasion, detailing consequences for Russia (and the world), not giving an inch on the core NATO issues that Putin has been focused on. Biden warns that Russia invasion “still very much a possibility” During a speech updating on the Russia-Ukraine situation, Joe Biden warned that an invasion from Russia is “very much a possibility,” but that a diplomatic resolution was still possible. Today, Biden warned that despite reports from Russia that some of its troops were returning to home bases, analysis from the US has not verified that and that Russian troops remain in a threatening position. “An invasion remains distinctly possible,” said Biden, again announcing that Americans in Ukraine should leave now “before it is too late to leave safely.” Biden also confirmed that the US has engaged in “non-stop diplomacy” to prevent a Russian invasion, saying “We should give diplomacy every chance to succeed.” Biden also, again, noted that NATO allies are united in opposition to an invasion and prepared to respond with consequences. “The West is united and galvanised,” said Biden, noting that Russia invading Ukraine would be a “self-inflicting wound.” “If Russia proceeds, we will rally the world to oppose its aggression,” said Biden, confirming that export controls and other actions not pursued during the 2014 Russia-Crimea invasion will take place if Ukraine is invaded. Biden also confirmed again that Nord Stream 2 will not happen if Russia invades Ukraine. Biden providing update on Russia-Ukraine situation Joe Biden is currently speaking on the Russia-Ukraine situation, with video available here. Stay tuned! Schumer: Joint, "bipartisan" statement on Russia-Ukraine coming soon US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said that he will be releasing a “bipartisan” statement with US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, along with ranking chairs from other relevant committees, on the Russia-Ukraine situation. White House aware of cyberattacks against Ukraine, offers suport The White House is aware of cyberattacks against Ukraine and has offered its support, reports Reuters. Today, following reports that Ukraine’s defense ministry website and at least two large banks had been subject to a cyber attack, the White House said it is aware of the cyberattacks and offered its support as an investigation continues. This story is developing. Russia has deployed fighter jets to its air base in Syria for naval exercises, reports Reuters. Russia has deployed MiG-31K fighter jets with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and long-range Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers to its air base in Syria for naval exercises, Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday, citing the defence ministry. The aircraft dispatched to Russia’s Hmeimim air base will take part in exercises in the eastern Mediterranean, part of a surge of Russian military activity amid a standoff with the West over Ukraine and security in Europe. Moscow announced on Jan. 20 that its navy would stage an array of exercises involving all its fleets from the Pacific to the Atlantic, drawing on 10,000 servicemen, 140 warships and dozens of planes. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Damascus has been a staunch ally of Moscow since Russia launched an air strike campaign in Syria in 2015. Apart from the Hmeimim air base, Russia also controls the Tartus naval facility. Read the full article here (paywall). Following up on Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s tweet about the US having “unwavering support” for Ukraine, here is a summary of the call between Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, according to United States Department of State spokesperson Ned Price: The Secretary reiterated the U.S. commitment to continue to pursue a diplomatic solution to the crisis Moscow has precipitated. He stated that the United States looks forward to receiving Russia’s written response to the U.S. and NATO papers shared with Moscow last month proposing concrete areas for discussion regarding European security in coordination with our Allies and partners. He noted the Foreign Minister’s statement that it would be transmitted within the coming days. Secretary Blinken reiterated our ongoing concerns that Russia has the capacity to launch an invasion of Ukraine at any moment and emphasized the need to see verifiable, credible, meaningful de-escalation. He underscored that, while further Russian aggression against Ukraine would result in a swift, severe, and united Transatlantic response, we remain committed to the diplomatic path and believe that a window remains to resolve the crisis peacefully. In addition to confirming US support of Ukraine, US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley has also spoken with sources in Ukraine to confirm US support. A Reuters reporter tweeted that Milley spoke with a Ukrainian counterpart and “reaffirmed unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” according to sources from the Pentagon. US secretary of state reiterates commitment to diplomatic solution in call with Russian foreign minister US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has tweeted his country’s “unwavering support” for Ukraine. The New York Times’ Moscow bureau chief, Anton Troianovski, writes that following his joint press conference with Vladimir Putin, German chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters in a separate briefing that “NATO membership for Ukraine is not on the agenda”. Scholz said: Everyone must step back a bit here and make it clear to themselves that we just can’t have a possible military conflict over a question that is not on the agenda. It is the question of leadership ability for all involved – in Russia, in Ukraine, in NATO – to make sure that we don’t have an absurd situation that would be about something like that. Andriy, a 34-year-old bank clerk living in Kyiv, was feeling very pleased with the announcement on Tuesday that some Russian troops had started to move away from the border with Ukraine. First, it seemed to lower the threat of an all-out Russian attack on Kyiv. And second, it meant he might win a bet with his sister. Most locals are going about their lives as normal. “She took a plane to Poland on Saturday with her kids because she was reading about all this war threat, but I didn’t believe in it, and also I wanted to stay because had a haircut booked,” he said, as he took a stroll in the sunshine on the central Khreshchatyk street on Tuesday afternoon. “We had a bet about whether the Russians would attack,” he said. In recent days, many Kyiv residents, while alarmed by the military buildup, have shared Andriy’s scepticism about American warnings that their lives were about to be disrupted by missile barrages and that tank incursions would come to pass.