Visiting Brussels for the second time in a month, one could not fail to notice how the Ukraine crisis is casting a longer shadow over the city and the EU than just a month ago. The EU had been gearing up for competition with China, but the Ukraine crisis has added another twist. There is very little doubt now that we are in the grips of a new global cold war. The devastation caused by the original Cold War, which was suffered mostly by developing countries, should teach them to sit this one out unless they can help defuse the superpower conflict. While EU foreign ministers were convening their monthly meeting on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin loomed large as TV screens around the world showed him signing papers declaring Russia’s recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk, two breakaway regions of Ukraine, as independent republics. European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised tough sanctions against Moscow. The EU has been at the heart of the Ukraine-Russia conflict for some time. In the mid-1990s, Ukrainian leaders approached the bloc for possible membership, but Brussels declined and in 2009 instead offered the Eastern Partnership alternative. This strengthened EU ties with Ukraine, as well as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia and Moldova — six countries lying between the EU and Russia. Association and free trade agreements were part of the deal. Belarus later pulled out. Russia objected strongly to the partnership policy, which challenged Moscow’s historical influence in Eastern Europe. It took exception in particular to the growing ties between the EU and Ukraine and especially to their association agreement. But the EU and Ukraine went ahead and, by 2012, negotiations on the association agreement, including an FTA, were concluded and the text was initialed. The agreement was a key factor in the uprising that overthrew Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014. His overthrow and Kyiv’s growing ties with the EU, including the signing of the association agreement in March 2014, and NATO contributed to Ukraine’s estrangement from Russia. Not since the end of the Cold War has there been foreboding like one feels in Brussels these days. The developments in Ukraine have shaken off the sense of complacency many Europeans and others had felt since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, which signaled the end of the Cold War. With the threat of war from the east receding, European nations mothballed their military hardware and focused on other things. Until now. The Ukraine crisis has added fuel to the already brewing conflict with China. With the new Cold War, we may be on the cusp of a new polarized world order. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Friday told the Munich Security Conference that the threat to global security is now more complex and probably greater than it was during the Cold War because, back then, “there were mechanisms that enabled the protagonists to calculate risks and use backchannels to prevent crises.” He repeated his warning from last September, during the opening week of the UN General Assembly, that the new competition was more dangerous than the old one. Then, he was focused on the China-US rivalry. The Ukraine crisis threatens to turn into a devastating war. Even if a direct shooting war can be avoided, a new front in the new cold war has certainly opened. During the old Cold War, millions died in the superpowers’ proxy wars, mostly in developing countries, while economic and ethnic tensions were at times stoked and exploited. Economic development was often derailed and political and social institutions undermined, leading to social breakdowns and state failures. During the old Cold War, millions died in the superpowers’ proxy wars, mostly in developing countries. Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg In Africa, according to a recent study by the African Export-Import Bank, the Cold War claimed millions of African lives and led to “lost decades that precipitated a widening income gap between Africa and the rest of the world.” Scars are still fresh and the region “cannot afford a sequel,” according to the study, which documented the effects of the new cold war in Africa. More than 20,000 people were killed in local African conflicts in 2020, 10 times the figure of a decade ago. These proxy wars have led to instability and the militarization of some African states, diverting badly needed funds away from development. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, military spending in Africa exceeded $43 billion in 2020, up from $15 billion in the 1990s. In some countries, military spending has doubled or tripled over the past decade. Conflicts in Africa have led to the downgrading of sovereign credit ratings, scaring off investors and raising borrowing costs. Diverting money from development in poor countries has made it difficult for them to fight desertification and climate change, fueling emigration. Africa is an example of how a new cold war could undermine government authority, derail economic recovery, stoke ethnic and religious conflicts, and damage social cohesion. In response to the bipolar US-Russia world of the Cold War, most countries tried to stay neutral, even establishing the Non-Aligned Movement to organize their neutrality. However, as hard as they tried, most countries were pulled to one side or the other. Very few remained truly neutral. The question now is how to prevent the new cold war from spreading. Its onset should motivate parties in local conflicts, such as those in Yemen and Somalia, to resolve their differences quickly, either bilaterally or regionally, to avoid getting entangled in superpower rivalry. Conflicts that are difficult to resolve may now become impossible to end if the superpowers find it in their interest for them to continue. Therefore, attempts to internationalize local conflicts should be resisted, except through UN mediation when needed, and only when local efforts fail. Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs & Negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent GCC views. Twitter: @abuhamad1 Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view