Negotiators on all sides in Vienna have been signaling that a potential agreement to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Iran nuclear deal, which was originally signed in 2015, is on the cards. Despite a reported last-minute Russian demand, the world can maybe breathe a sigh of relief at managing to put a cap on Iran’s nuclear ambitions for another few years. The late Russian requirement for assurances related to the newly imposed sanctions on its oil and gas industry due to its invasion of Ukraine might fall into the realm of the pressure Moscow is trying to exert on the West to meet its security concerns related to NATO’s enlargement — an issue that partly motivated its invasion. One would usually want to celebrate finding a bit of positive news amid the fog of war in Ukraine and the post-COVID-19 uncertainties that are enveloping the globe. But, however positive the reactivation of the nuclear deal would be for nonproliferation in the world, for countries in the Middle East the deal rings alarm bells, since the related removal of sanctions on Iran will mean an increase in its meddling in neighboring countries’ affairs. Iranian officials might herald the removal of sanctions as a victory, but this victory is only for the regime and its power-grabbing henchmen, as it is unlikely the renewed flow of cash and trade will improve the lives of ordinary Iranians or brighten their future. No one will be more alarmed by the renewal of the nuclear deal than Iran’s neighbors. Many see in the lifting of sanctions a green light for the regime to double down on its efforts to fragment the formerly multicultural Lebanese state, impoverishing it further and destroying its character as a haven for free trade and culture. Tehran’s agent in Lebanon, Hezbollah, is today not just a state within the state, but simply the sole wielder of power in the country. Having turned Lebanon into a tool to spread chaos and terror in the region, Iran now risks Syria becoming more entrenched in chaos and violence. It is working to change the demographic and sectarian fabric of the country, plunging a once self-sufficient nation — despite its family dictatorship — into poverty on a scale not seen before. It is likely that the main world powers’ haste to reinstate the deal will only embolden Iran and not tame it. Mohamed Chebaro Iraq is no different. Like Lebanon, its political consensus-seeking game among its various Iran-backed sects and tribes has been teetering on the brink. Years after the removal of Saddam Hussein, Iraq has still not been able to use its oil revenues to rebuild its infrastructure or provide healthcare and education for its citizens. Instead, many Iraqis believe the country’s capital is largely funneled out through a complex web of corruption, with a lot of it going to fund Iran and its many regional adventures. Yemen is another failed state by design, as the Iran-allied Houthis act only to execute the agenda of their masters in Tehran. In addition to the country remaining one of the poorest in the region, Iranian investment has turned it into a missile and armed drone launchpad for attacking Saudi Arabia and the UAE. I tend to agree with the West that Iran’s nuclear ambitions need to be curbed, but those policymakers have failed to see the nuances attached to focusing only on the nuclear program. They are ignoring its regional and international posturing that disregards the rule of law, as well as its continued efforts to improve its conventional arsenal and missile capabilities, including weaponry capable of carrying nuclear warheads, even at the price of denying their citizens a future. So how can the parties to the deal trust a nation with a non-civilian nuclear program despite Tehran’s assurances, after experiencing its behavior and actions over the past 40 years? The regime has, after all, acted like a rogue state, from taking hostages to directly or through agents kidnapping foreigners and citizens with dual nationality in order to get Western countries to meet its demands. Also, one hopes that the new agreement will have a better verification process. The 2015 nuclear deal allowed Iran to put its advanced centrifuges into storage under the watch of the International Atomic Energy Agency, while keeping its enrichment levels at 3.67 percent purity and allowing it to stockpile up to 300 kilograms of uranium. The IAEA last month said that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was at nearly 3,200 kilograms, some of it enriched to 60 percent purity, just a short step away from the 90 percent purity needed to make it weapons-grade. Many in the past had applauded former US President Donald Trump for pulling out of the deal in 2018 and imposing sweeping sanctions on Iran, including banning it from selling oil, while vowing to bring the country to its knees. However, Trump did not provide any alternatives to tempt Iran to abandon its program. Current US President Joe Biden is keen to remove these sanctions in order to reinstate a deal that was the Obama administration’s key aspiration. But 2015 is not 2022 and, as the West has failed — after three decades of trying — to bring Russia in from the cold, it is likely that the main world powers’ haste to reinstate the deal will only embolden Iran and not tame it. In the Middle East, the man on the street knows that a leopard never changes its spots. • Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist, media consultant and trainer with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view