Conservative leaders insist they are on track for strong results in local elections across England, predicting they will seize control of one of Labour’s longest-held councils, despite many admitting more should be done to ease the “nightmare” of soaring bills. More than a million people are expected to be pushed into absolute poverty after Rishi Sunak’s mini-budget, which has attracted heavy criticism from experts and Tory backbenchers. However, Tory leaders outside London said they did not believe the party would be punished at the polls on 5 May, when local elections take place in England, Wales and Scotland. Elections for the Northern Ireland assembly will take place on the same day. Tory strategists have set their sights on taking control of Sunderland city council for the first time in its 48-year history, in what would represent a headline-grabbing victory for Boris Johnson and a serious blow for Keir Starmer. Antony Mullen, the leader of the Conservatives in Sunderland, said it was “probably likely” that Labour would lose control of the council in six weeks, despite conceding that the chancellor could have done more to protect voters from the cost of living crisis. “One area where it would be good to have seen more would be an increase to universal credit,” he said. “Any intervention he does make will have to be targeted at those who need it most, but when that category of people is widening considerably it becomes an almost unmanageable problem. I wouldn’t be surprised if in April there is more intervention.” Patrick Harley, the Conservative leader of Dudley council, said he was confident the party would make gains, with 24 seats up for grabs in the former “red wall” stronghold. Harley, who runs a pub, said his bills were “just scary” and he would like to see Sunak give a one-off payment to help households through the next couple of months. “It’s a nightmare at the moment. Household bills will inevitably go up and people will have to try to manage as they can and hopefully over the next couple of months we will see a reduction,” he said, adding: “We could always hope for more but in the grand scheme of things he didn’t do a bad job.” In Walsall, the Tory council leader, Mike Bird, said Sunak had “given as much support as he can”. He added: “There are people out there on benefits and they can have more and more and more. Well, there’s a million jobs vacant and some people unfortunately find the benefits system a little more generous than going to work.” However, Adele Warren, a Conservative councillor for one of the poorest wards in Bolton, said she had been contacted by older residents “who didn’t feel [Sunak] went far enough”. Warren said the cost of living would affect how people voted: “People are so frightened about turning their electricity or heating on. It’s a real worry to people now. I do think they could have gone much, much further.” In Calderdale, West Yorkshire, the Tory leader, Steven Leigh, said the public had received “phenomenal” government help since 2020 and predicted his party would make inroads towards taking over the Labour-run council. “They’ve done what they can in the circumstances,” he said of the Treasury. Nathan Evans, the Conservative leader in Trafford, Greater Manchester, said they were hoping to make gains before dislodging Labour in next year’s local elections. He said Sunak had “done what he can do but you can always do more”. However, he added: “We’ve got a million vacancies out there. The way out of poverty isn’t through benefits. The way out of poverty is through work. And it’s tough, and we would all like to do more, but you’ve got to balance it.”