KPMG sees Saudi jobless rate falling as GDP rises in 2022, 2023

  • 4/10/2022
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This comes after the real GDP in Saudi Arabia is estimated to have grown by 3.3 percent in 2021, following a contraction of 4.1 percent in 2020 RIYADH: Saudi Arabia will see a drop in the jobless rate this year and next as its gross domestic product is expected to rise, a recent outlook report by KPMG showed. Saudi Arabian GDP is expected to grow at 6.7 percent in 2022, as the country recovers from the pandemic, forecasted the tax and audit advisory firm. KPMG added that the growth in GDP will be catalyzed by a sharp rise in oil production and an ongoing recovery in the non-oil economy. Real GDP growth may slow down in 2023 The report further stated that trends in 2022 are expected to continue into 2023, although real GDP growth will slow to 3.9 percent as base effects limit the year-on-year expansion. This comes after the real GDP in Saudi Arabia is estimated to have grown by 3.3 percent in 2021, following a contraction of 4.1 percent in 2020. The KPMG reports added that annual average inflation in Saudi Arabia will rise by 2.7 percent and 1.7 percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The risk of upward price pressures remain high for 2022 due to global supply chain disruptions triggered by the pandemic. However, the report noted that the risk of imported inflationary pressures has remained muted, as domestic prices in Saudi Arabia’s main supplying countries have not spiked significantly. Unemployment rate to ease As Saudi Arabia continues its increased focus on non-oil sectors, the total unemployment rate is expected to continue to trend downwards, averaging 6.3 percent in 2022 and 6 percent in 2023, compared with an estimated average of 6.6 percent in 2021. “Despite expectations for a robust economic performance over the next two years, the rapid rehiring process that has already occurred as the domestic economy reopened, will limit the headline improvement in the unemployment rate,” the report noted. Construction workers shortage in the next two years The report forecast the possibility of skills mismatch in isolated pockets over the next two years, as Covid restrictions are still in place for foreign entrants in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine tensions posing risks to Saudi Arabia The report further added that the ongoing tension between Russia and Ukraine is likely to provide upside risks for Saudi Arabia, as the nation has been under pressure from major oil-using countries to increase oil production by more than is agreed under its current OPEC+ commitments.

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