More than a quarter of a billion people around the world could be pushed into extreme poverty this year amid a surge in global food prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing impact of Covid and rising global inequality, Oxfam has warned. Highlighting the knock-on impact of the war for the poorest people around the globe, the aid charity said two decades of progress were in danger of being reversed as the conflict pushes up prices on wholesale markets, disrupts harvests and impedes exports of vital commodities. It warned a total of 263 million people – equivalent to the populations of the UK, France, Germany and Spain combined – could be pushed into extreme poverty this year. Ahead of key international meetings being held next week by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, Oxfam said that by the end of the year as many as 860 million people could be living in extreme poverty – living on less than $1.90 (£1.46) a day. The UN said last week that global food prices had reached a new all-time high amid the repercussions of war in Europe and warned that soaring costs would hit the poorest hardest. The conflict has driven up prices of wheat, maize and vegetable oils. Russia ranks as the world’s largest exporter of wheat, while Ukraine – known as the breadbasket of Europe – ranks fifth. Together the countries supply more than a quarter of global exports, with buyers typically concentrated in poor regions such as the Middle East and north Africa. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, which tracks global prices, said the war had contributed to a rise in cereal prices of 17% over the past month alone, with the closure of ports hitting wheat and maize exports in the Black Sea. Russian exports have also been slowed by financial and shipping problems. Oxfam said rising food costs account for 17% of consumer spending in wealthy countries, but as much as 40% in sub-Saharan Africa. The impact will also be felt in wealthier economies, including the US where the poorest fifth of families spend 27% of their income on food, compared with just 7% for the richest fifth. In a report titled First Crisis, then Catastrophe, it said a wave of governments in low-income countries were close to defaulting on their debts, and could be forced to cut public spending to pay creditors and import food and fuel. It found the world’s poorest countries are due to pay $43bn in debt repayments this year, which could otherwise cover the costs of their food imports. Oxfam said debt payments for developing countries could be cancelled to help those most at need, while an annual wealth tax on millionaires and billionaires could rake in more than $2.5tn a year. The proceeds could be used to lift 2.3 billion people out of poverty, make enough vaccines for the world, and deliver universal healthcare and social protection for everyone living in low and lower middle-income countries. Katy Chakrabortty, head of advocacy at Oxfam, said a “herculean response” was needed to tackle the catastrophe facing humanity from Covid and the impact of rising inflation fuelled by the war in Ukraine. “Multiple global crises are causing misery for millions of people and just moving aid around to each crisis is not enough; low-income countries need debt cancellation to be able to invest in social safety nets and progressive taxation on the wealthiest is needed now more than ever to provide huge funds for protecting the most vulnerable. “In addition to the shocking extreme poverty figures, millions of people are already experiencing severe levels of hunger across east and west Africa, Yemen and Syria.”