It wasn’t as if things had been going brilliantly for Boris Johnson as he attempted to spend some precious downtime last week at Chequers, a bubble of countryside tranquillity away from the escalating cost of living crisis and political woes that had punctuated his year. Already by Tuesday morning, one MP had been expelled from the party after being found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy. Another had caused outrage for issuing a statement supporting his former colleague – all just weeks before looming local elections. Then, in a sparsely populated Downing Street, the phone rang. The call from the Metropolitan police, made to inform the prime minister that he would be among those fined for attending a Downing Street gathering for his birthday, sent shocked officials into a scramble. It is a measure of the threat it posed that this weekend, after the deployment of a hugely controversial asylum policy and a concerted campaign to prop up the prime minister, his team will be relieved that the number of MPs calling for his resignation has been limited to a dozen or so – and only one minister has quit. Yet as Tory MPs prepared to regroup in Westminster this week, many were already concluding that any predictions that the threat to Johnson’s position had subsided were seriously overdone. “He’s still deep in the woods,” said one former minister. “We’ve got local elections and that is what is holding most colleagues back. But once the locals are done, and if there are more fines, then it does become a very much more difficult terrain. I don’t think it’s signed, sealed and delivered – and they know that in No 10. They’ve been very unnerved.” While the timing of the Met’s phone call during the political recess made it for a scattered No 10 team to formulate a response, it ultimately helped the prime minister. In the hours that followed the news that both Johnson and the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, had received a fine, the Tory MP WhatsApp group was silent, with no one wanting to be the first to give their verdict on the leakiest forum in Westminster. All afternoon, the deafening silence was only broken by the Northern Ireland secretary, Brandon Lewis, welcoming the third series of Channel 4’s Derry Girls and South Swindon MP Robert Buckland tweeting his Wordle attempt. Finally, Nadine Dorries, the ultra-loyal culture secretary, led a late charge of cabinet support for the PM. His real saviour, however, came in the unlikely form of Sir Roger Gale – an arch Johnson critic. In a sign that there would be no immediate threat to Johnson’s premiership, he concluded removing him now would be a “gross self-indulgence” while the Ukraine crisis was continuing. Another stroke of luck for Johnson was that, to the surprise of everyone in the government, Sunak was also fined for his attendance at the birthday party event. It could so easily have been different. It is understood that, having arrived early for a meeting, Sunak hovered at the door of the party for some time before entering the room. An unfortunately timed photograph of the chancellor, his allies believe, is to blame for his fine. It meant that those regarding Sunak as the natural successor to Johnson suddenly could not denounce the prime minister, while Sunak could not quit without collapsing the government. Even then, allies said he spent a miserable few hours considering his future, whatever the impact, but backed away from quitting. Despite those slices of fortune, however, several MPs said on Saturday night that the security of Johnson’s position was now being overestimated. All those whom the Observer spoke to thought further fines were inevitable and would be harder to justify. In particular, Johnson’s attendance at a “bring your own booze” event in the Downing Street garden, as well as an alleged party in the Johnsons’ Downing Street flat – which is denied by No 10 – have the greatest potential for damage. “I think the birthday stuff is small beer compared with what is coming,” said one veteran MP. “[Potentially] six more fines? And what about the flat party?” As Tory MPs began wading through their emails at the end of last week, various responses mirrored that of Gale – that “not now” very much did not mean “never”. Many agree the key moment remains the publication of the full Sue Gray report on the Downing Street parties, which will come once all the Partygate fines have been issued. Correspondence from Tory MPs to voters, seen by the Observer, includes Kevin Hollinrake, MP for Thirsk and Malton, who condemned the rule-breaking and added: “There is a requirement within the [ministerial] code that any significant breach would necessitate the tendering of a resignation, and this of course would also apply to the prime minister.” Sir Christopher Chope, an MP on the right of the party, also said ominously: “Before deciding upon what course of action to take, I shall wait for these further reports.” Sir Gary Streeter, the veteran MP for South West Devon, was more blunt. In reply to an email that he said was “one of many”, he stated: “I submitted a letter of no confidence several weeks ago, which was widely reported. My position remains unchanged.” There are also dangerous moments in the week ahead. Apart from the imminent threat of further fines, it is understood MPs have approached the Speaker about referring the prime minister to the privileges committee over whether he misled the house about parties. Other MPs are said to be on the edge. Alex Chalk, the solicitor general, who is regarded as firmly on resignation watch, went as far as he could without resigning in his statement to his local newspaper, saying he would not defend the prime minister’s actions. He is one of five QCs on the frontbench. A sixth, justice minister Lord Wolfson, resigned. The local elections, too, have become pivotal to test public support for Johnson, a leader whom many MPs only supported after being persuaded of his electoral draw. Has anger over Partygate cut through? “I think a lot of [Partygate] has been priced in,” said an MP in a marginal seat. “But that’s not to minimise the damage that’s been done by it. I don’t think any of us should kid ourselves. It’s turned him into a mere mortal as opposed to Super Boris. I don’t think he’s got that sort of lustre – that’s all burned off.” Out on the campaign trail last week, Tory candidates were doing all they could to shift the focus away from national politics. Walking around the Milton Keynes ward of Tattenhoe, Shazna Muzammil talked about parking, potholes and litter. A Tory council candidate, she has centred her campaign on the things she believes matter most to local people. But it is becoming trickier to keep conversations on track. National issues, including partygate and the cost of living, keep coming up on doorsteps. “What’s going on nationally … it does definitely make it harder,” said Muzammil, 44. “The prime minister is doing well on Ukraine, but people never talk to you about that because they have nothing to complain about.” Tattenhoe, a relatively affluent pocket of Milton Keynes characterised by green spaces and attractive new housing developments, has two Conservative councillors and one Labour. Next month, the Labour seat is up for grabs – an opportunity Muzammil hopes to grasp. Last year, the Tories gained six seats across Milton Keynes to become the biggest party on the council, although no party has overall control. Whether they will win new voters or cling on to their existing ones is uncertain. In Milton Keynes last week, some Tory supporters admitted their allegiance was wavering, while other voters remained on the fence. Frederick, 77, a former engineer from the market town of Stony Stratford, voted for the Conservative candidate in the last local elections, inspired by the national leadership. “It seemed to be going all right – things seemed quite level,” he said. Partygate has made him question whether it is worth voting at all. “You feel as though you can’t trust them – what they say or what they do,” he said. “Boris Johnson lied – there’s no doubt about it. I feel sorry for the people who had friends and relatives dying in hospital and they couldn’t go in and say goodbye. And they’re having bloody parties.” He will decide who to vote for locally “after a pint”, he said. “But it won’t be Conservative,” he added. He has previously voted for Labour candidates, but he is “not that sure” about the party’s leadership. “Maybe it’d be a good idea to go for the Lib Dems.” Another local, Vicky Elizabeth, 39, a teacher from Bletchley, is considering voting for the Liberal Democrats. She wants councillors to focus on environmental issues and the regeneration of the high street, as well as improving safety for residents, and is “keeping an open mind”. But she said: “I can’t imagine it’ll be Conservative, even if locally they were standing up for something amazing. With the changes in education and Tory sleaze … there’s too much water under the bridge at the moment.” However, despite some public anger – with one Tory describing Johnson as a “hypocrite” and another calling him the “better of two evils” – many Conservative voters remain loyal to the party and its leader. Back in Tattenhoe, the criticism from many Conservative voters was gentle. One local, a 49-year-old personal assistant, said Johnson and Sunak should “be punished and held accountable”, but added: “I will still vote for the Tories, to be honest. They’ve got us through the past few years better than some other countries.” Other Tory MPs critical of Johnson confirm that while there is apathy for their party, voters were not yet embracing Labour. “Our view on the doorstep was people are pissed off with us, but there’s no appetite for Labour,” said one northern MP. Between now and the elections, the Downing Street strategy is simple: keep busy. After the announcement that asylum seekers would be sent to Rwanda, which pushed Partygate off the front pages from Thursday, the prime minister is heading off for a high-profile trade trip to India this week. One minister said the sudden outburst of activity, particularly the Rwanda policy, bore the hallmarks of the Australian strategist Lynton Crosby, who has always remained close to Johnson. “I find it repugnant, but it’s just from that classic playbook,” they said. Johnson’s allies see the final threat as 9 May, when Russia could in theory end its attacks on Ukraine to coincide with the anniversary marking its defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945. At that point, the invasion will no longer be a viable excuse for MPs refraining from calling on Johnson to go. Critics of the prime minister also know that even with the election likely to be two years away, their time to act is limited. Many have given themselves a summer deadline to decide whether to depose him. On Saturday night, the embattled Johnson issued his Easter message. “Easter tells us that there is light beyond the darkness,” he said. “That beyond the suffering lies redemption.” He will have to hope his gloomy MPs take his message as more than just a seasonal platitude.